luckadjusted

Week 3 2019 · September 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Browns, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Browns 20–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Rams were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:28 left): the Rams were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 21 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 20
Cleveland Browns 13

September 22, 2019 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Rams −4

Luck index +17 Rams about even · −17 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 8, Browns win 2.

  1. 1 LA 41 CLE 13
  2. 2 LA 34 CLE 13
  3. 3 LA 33 CLE 16
  4. 4 LA 20 CLE 7
  5. 5 LA 21 CLE 10
  6. 6 LA 25 CLE 17
  7. 7 LA 27 CLE 22
  8. 8 LA 15 CLE 13
  9. 9 LA 27 CLE 30
  10. 10 LA 17 CLE 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 83% of them, Browns 17%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+35.9%
Rams by 9–1622.9%
Rams by 1–823.9%
Level after regulation1.1%
Browns by 1–810.4%
Browns by 9–164.6%
Browns by 17+1.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 6.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 53 yds made · 64% expected
  • A. Seibert, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 48 yds missed · 73% expected
  • A. Seibert, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 37 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:28 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Rams fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% CLE LA: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:44 The Rams converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +15% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q3 6:15 The Browns converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +20% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q3 0:09 The Rams converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +12% LA LA: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:51 The Rams converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +10% LA LA: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:54 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +10% CLE LA: End of game
7 Q4 1:48 The Browns converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +10% CLE CLE: Turnover
8 Q4 0:33 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +19% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Damarious Randall (CLE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Morgan Burnett (CLE SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashard Higgins (CLE WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Austin Blythe (LA G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 92% · Browns 8%

Final margin
Rams by 7
Luck in points
0.9 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Rams 83% · Browns 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Rams · Browns

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