luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2019 · September 23, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Washington, Week 3 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat Washington 31–15, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bears win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bears were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:53 left): Return touchdown by the Bears, worth 18 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 31
Washington Redskins 15

September 23, 2019 · FedExField · Closing line: Bears −5

Luck index +46 Bears lucky · −46 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 5, Washington wins 5.

  1. 1 CHI 31 WAS 9
  2. 2 CHI 26 WAS 13
  3. 3 CHI 33 WAS 24
  4. 4 CHI 20 WAS 14
  5. 5 CHI 23 WAS 21
  6. 6 CHI 11 WAS 13
  7. 7 CHI 16 WAS 20
  8. 8 CHI 16 WAS 24
  9. 9 CHI 14 WAS 27
  10. 10 CHI 14 WAS 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 54% of them, Washington 46%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+10.4%
Bears by 9–1614.8%
Bears by 1–824.3%
Level after regulation5.3%
Washington by 1–821.9%
Washington by 9–1614.6%
Washington by 17+8.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 16, without the luck Bears by 11. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds missed · 84% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 44 yds missed · 83% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 9 for 59 yards, Washington 9 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:54 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Jonathan Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% CHI +0.3 pts
Q1 6:50 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Duke Shelley), 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q1 6:13 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +4% WAS +1.3 pts
Q1 1:32 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears (Prince Amukamara), 5 yards, wiping out the play +11% WAS +3.5 pts
Q1 0:42 Defensive Offside on the Bears (Danny Trevathan), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards +2% CHI +1.1 pts
Q2 12:53 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Ryan Anderson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.5 pts
Q2 12:35 False Start on the Bears (Anthony Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.5 pts
Q2 10:54 Defensive Offside on Washington (Ryan Kerrigan), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.5 pts
Q2 9:31 Illegal Contact on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 4 yards +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q2 7:00 Illegal Shift on Washington (Steven Sims), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% CHI +2.8 pts
Q2 5:52 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Josh Norman), 7 yards +2% CHI +1.7 pts
Q2 1:16 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 0:11 Defensive Offside on the Bears (Khalil Mack), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.6 pts
Q3 5:58 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington (Landon Collins), 15 yards +1% CHI +1.8 pts
Q3 1:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Aaron Lynch), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.3 pts
Q4 1:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 4 yards 0% WAS +0.1 pts
Q4 0:18 False Start on Washington (Vernon Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.2 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:54 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Jonathan Allen), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 7 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +5% CHI CHI: Punt
2 Q1 9:53 Return touchdown by the BearsSpecial teams +18% CHI CHI: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 6:13 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
4 Q1 1:32 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears (Prince Amukamara), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 145 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +11% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
5 Q1 0:38 Washington converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
6 Q2 13:26 D. Hopkins missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +7% CHI WAS: Turnover
7 Q2 7:00 Illegal Shift on Washington (Steven Sims), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 22 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +6% CHI CHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:40 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% CHI WAS: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Reed (WAS TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (WAS CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Greg Stroman (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 99% · Washington 1%

Final margin
Bears by 16
Luck in points
5.0 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 11.0
Replay with same day's form
Bears 54% · Washington 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2019 games · Bears · Washington

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