2019 season · final

Chicago Bears, 2019: game by game

The Bears went 8–8 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.0 wins. Luck added 4.0: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.

Every game

How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Packers	L 3–10	23%	−23
Week 2	@ Broncos	W 16–14	10%	+90
Week 3	@ Washington	W 31–15	55%	+45
Week 4	vs Vikings	W 16–6	61%	+39
Week 5	@ Raiders	L 21–24	13%	−13
Week 7	vs Saints	L 25–36	1%	−1
Week 8	vs Chargers	L 16–17	22%	−22
Week 9	@ Eagles	L 14–22	10%	−10
Week 10	vs Lions	W 20–13	14%	+86
Week 11	@ Rams	L 7–17	20%	−20
Week 12	vs Giants	W 19–14	61%	+39
Week 13	@ Lions	W 24–20	66%	+34
Week 14	vs Cowboys	W 31–24	13%	+87
Week 15	@ Packers	L 13–21	22%	−22
Week 16	vs Chiefs	L 3–26	4%	−4
Week 17	@ Vikings	W 21–19	9%	+91

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −23 vs GB

Wk 2 +90 @ DEN

Wk 3 +45 @ WAS

Wk 4 +39 vs MIN

Wk 5 −13 @ OAK

Wk 7 −1 vs NO

Wk 8 −22 vs LAC

Wk 9 −10 @ PHI

Wk 10 +86 vs DET

Wk 11 −20 @ LA

Wk 12 +39 vs NYG

Wk 13 +34 @ DET

Wk 14 +87 vs DAL

Wk 15 −22 @ GB

Wk 16 −4 vs KC

Wk 17 +91 @ MIN

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bears’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+15.3	+0.96
Injuries	+15.0	+0.94
Kicks	+6.4	+0.40
Fumble bounces	+6.3	+0.39
Rest	+1.4	+0.09
3rd & 4th downs	+0.8	+0.05