luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chiefs at Bears, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Bears 26–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:32 left): the Chiefs converted 3rd & 18, worth 11 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 26
Chicago Bears 3

December 22, 2019 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Chiefs −6.5

Luck index +4 Chiefs about even · −4 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 10, Bears win 0.

  1. 1 KC 31 CHI 0
  2. 2 KC 31 CHI 7
  3. 3 KC 34 CHI 14
  4. 4 KC 35 CHI 17
  5. 5 KC 23 CHI 7
  6. 6 KC 24 CHI 10
  7. 7 KC 14 CHI 3
  8. 8 KC 21 CHI 13
  9. 9 KC 20 CHI 14
  10. 10 KC 16 CHI 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 96% of them, Bears 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+56.6%
Chiefs by 9–1623.2%
Chiefs by 1–815.8%
Level after regulation0.9%
Bears by 1–82.5%
Bears by 9–160.8%
Bears by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 21.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 56 yds made · 59% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 46 yds made · 75% expected
  • H. Butker, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:49 The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% CHI CHI: Punt
2 Q1 12:16 The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% CHI CHI: Punt
3 Q1 11:33 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% CHI CHI: Punt
4 Q1 8:40 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:32 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +11% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q1 1:37 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:05 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% CHI CHI: End of half
8 Q2 2:00 Running Into the Kicker on the Bears (Kevin Pierre-Louis), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 366 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +5% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Bobby Massie (CHI T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Roquan Smith (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Gabriel (CHI WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Danny Trevathan (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Trey Burton (CHI TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Emmanuel Ogbah (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Martinas Rankin (KC T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Okafor (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (KC G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 100% · Bears 0%

Final margin
Chiefs by 23
Luck in points
1.1 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 21.9
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 96% · Bears 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Chiefs · Bears

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