luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Jets, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Steelers 16–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Jets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 1.7 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:09 left): the Steelers converted 3rd & 9, worth 13 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 10
New York Jets 16

December 22, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3

Luck index +49 Jets lucky · −49 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 5, Jets win 5.

  1. 1 PIT 29 NYJ 7
  2. 2 PIT 17 NYJ 3
  3. 3 PIT 19 NYJ 10
  4. 4 PIT 16 NYJ 11
  5. 5 PIT 24 NYJ 22
  6. 6 PIT 16 NYJ 19
  7. 7 PIT 13 NYJ 18
  8. 8 PIT 17 NYJ 27
  9. 9 PIT 16 NYJ 29
  10. 10 PIT 17 NYJ 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 49% of them, Jets 51%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+9.4%
Steelers by 9–1615.2%
Steelers by 1–821.7%
Level after regulation6.0%
Jets by 1–821.4%
Jets by 9–1615.3%
Jets by 17+11.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 6.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Ficken, 54 yds made · 61% expected
  • C. Boswell, 49 yds made · 74% expected
  • S. Ficken, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • S. Ficken, 42 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:59 The Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:23 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Punt
3 Q1 10:32 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:53 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% NYJ PIT: Punt
5 Q2 10:27 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +9% NYJ PIT: Punt
6 Q3 2:09 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% PIT PIT: Punt
7 Q4 14:55 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Benny Snell Jr.), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 274 snaps before, position avg 1 per 654 +9% NYJ NYJ: Punt
8 Q4 0:44 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Demaryius Thomas (NYJ WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Chuma Edoga (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Griffin (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Winters (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nate Hairston (NYJ CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tom Compton (NYJ G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 23% · Jets 77%

Final margin
Jets by 6
Luck in points
0.8 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 49% · Jets 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Steelers · Jets

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