luckadjusted

Week 16 2019 · December 23, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Vikings, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Vikings 23–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:13 left): the Packers were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 19 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Green Bay Packers 23
Minnesota Vikings 10

December 23, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −4

Luck index +25 Packers about even · −25 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 8, Vikings win 2.

  1. 1 GB 34 MIN 3
  2. 2 GB 30 MIN 7
  3. 3 GB 42 MIN 23
  4. 4 GB 28 MIN 13
  5. 5 GB 41 MIN 30
  6. 6 GB 38 MIN 29
  7. 7 GB 30 MIN 24
  8. 8 GB 15 MIN 13
  9. 9 GB 26 MIN 29
  10. 10 GB 20 MIN 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 75% of them, Vikings 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+29.5%
Packers by 9–1619.7%
Packers by 1–822.8%
Level after regulation3.6%
Vikings by 1–813.2%
Vikings by 9–167.3%
Vikings by 17+3.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 5.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Crosby, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • M. Crosby, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Crosby, 19 yds made · 100% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:13 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Packers fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% MIN GB: Punt
2 Q2 2:42 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% GB MIN: Punt
3 Q2 0:52 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% GB GB: Field goal
4 Q2 0:03 M. Crosby made 19-yard field goalKicks · 100% expected for him +17% MIN GB: Punt
5 Q3 13:44 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% GB GB: Punt
6 Q3 9:02 The Vikings converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +10% MIN MIN: Turnover
7 Q4 15:00 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% GB MIN: Punt
8 Q4 4:16 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% GB GB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dalvin Cook (MIN RB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 75% · Vikings 25%

Final margin
Packers by 13
Luck in points
7.1 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Packers 75% · Vikings 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Packers · Vikings

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