luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2019 · December 22, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Eagles, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 17–9, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:34 left): J. Elliott missed a 53-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 9
Philadelphia Eagles 17

December 22, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Cowboys −2

Luck index +46 Eagles lucky · −46 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 5, Eagles win 5.

  1. 1 DAL 43 PHI 21
  2. 2 DAL 27 PHI 13
  3. 3 DAL 33 PHI 23
  4. 4 DAL 26 PHI 20
  5. 5 DAL 26 PHI 24
  6. 6 DAL 24 PHI 26
  7. 7 DAL 29 PHI 34
  8. 8 DAL 7 PHI 16
  9. 9 DAL 6 PHI 20
  10. 10 DAL 24 PHI 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 46% of them, Eagles 54%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+11.2%
Cowboys by 9–1613.9%
Cowboys by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation4.7%
Eagles by 1–822.3%
Eagles by 9–1614.8%
Eagles by 17+12.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Eagles by 8, without the luck Eagles by 13.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • K. Forbath, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • J. Elliott, 53 yds missed · 65% expected
  • K. Forbath, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Elliott, 55 yds missed · 62% expected
  • K. Forbath, 49 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 2 for 20 yards, Eagles 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:14 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.4 pts
Q2 5:56 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys, 15 yards +5% PHI +1.8 pts
Q2 1:19 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% DAL +2.4 pts
Q3 0:06 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL 0.0 pts
Q4 14:16 False Start on the Cowboys (Blake Jarwin), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.8 pts
Q4 13:37 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +1% DAL +0.9 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:45 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +10% PHI PHI: Field goal
2 Q1 11:15 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% PHI PHI: Field goal
3 Q2 9:25 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +6% DAL PHI: Punt
4 Q2 1:19 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
5 Q2 0:34 J. Elliott missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before +10% DAL PHI: End of half
6 Q3 10:19 The Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% PHI DAL: Punt
7 Q4 11:02 J. Elliott missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 2 of 5 from 45+ before +6% DAL PHI: Punt
8 Q4 9:13 The Cowboys converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% DAL DAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Alshon Jeffery (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Nelson Agholor (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Howard (PHI RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kamu Grugier-Hill (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Connor Williams (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 3% · Eagles 97%

Final margin
Eagles by 8
Luck in points
5.2 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 13.2
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 46% · Eagles 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Cowboys · Eagles

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