luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2019 · December 21, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Buccaneers, Week 16 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Buccaneers 23–20, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.

The Texans won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Texans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:19 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

December 21, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3

Luck index +93 Texans very lucky · −93 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 1, Buccaneers win 9.

  1. 1 HOU 39 TB 34
  2. 2 HOU 10 TB 13
  3. 3 HOU 20 TB 26
  4. 4 HOU 31 TB 40
  5. 5 HOU 24 TB 37
  6. 6 HOU 17 TB 33
  7. 7 HOU 17 TB 36
  8. 8 HOU 10 TB 32
  9. 9 HOU 20 TB 46
  10. 10 HOU 7 TB 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Texans won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.

50 points apart for the Texans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Texans offenseEPA per play gained −0.07 +0.14 worse by 0.21
Texans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.13 +0.11 worse by 0.02
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained +0.13 +0.18 worse by 0.05
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.07 +0.12 better by 0.20

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 7% of them, Buccaneers 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.5%
Texans by 9–161.2%
Texans by 1–84.7%
Level after regulation0.8%
Buccaneers by 1–811.8%
Buccaneers by 9–1622.5%
Buccaneers by 17+58.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 3, without the luck Texans by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Gay, 54 yds blocked · 64% expected
  • M. Gay, 50 yds made · 67% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 37 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 4 for 35 yards, Buccaneers 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:12 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 13:19 Illegal Blindside Block on the Texans (Charles Omenihu), 15 yards +2% TB +1.4 pts
Q1 12:30 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 5 yards +4% HOU +1.2 pts
Q1 8:50 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 7:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +1.2 pts
Q1 3:29 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 11:02 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.9 pts
Q3 1:13 Illegal Use of Hands on the Texans, 10 yards +4% TB +1.1 pts
Q4 8:13 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards +2% HOU +0.4 pts
Q4 0:28 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.1 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +20% HOU HOU: Opp touchdown
2 Q2 0:20 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +15% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q3 11:02 The Texans converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedDelay of Game on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q3 7:23 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% TB TB: Field goal
5 Q4 9:31 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% HOU HOU: Field goal
6 Q4 7:16 K. Fairbairn made a 37-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +8% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q4 4:22 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +10% HOU TB: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 3:38 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +17% HOU TB: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • J.J. Watt (HOU DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Keke Coutee (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 51% · Buccaneers 49%

Final margin
Texans by 3
Luck in points
2.7 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Texans 7% · Buccaneers 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2019 games · Texans · Buccaneers

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