2019 season · final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2019: game by game

The Buccaneers went 7–9 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.6 wins. Luck cost them 3.6: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–6.

Every game

How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs 49ers	L 17–31	41%	−41
Week 2	@ Panthers	W 20–14	77%	+23
Week 3	vs Giants	L 31–32	83%	−83
Week 4	@ Rams	W 55–40	36%	+64
Week 5	@ Saints	L 24–31	15%	−15
Week 6	vs Panthers	L 26–37	50%	−50
Week 8	@ Titans	L 23–27	84%	−84
Week 9	@ Seahawks	L 34–40	20%	−20
Week 10	vs Cardinals	W 30–27	55%	+45
Week 11	vs Saints	L 17–34	39%	−39
Week 12	@ Falcons	W 35–22	96%	+4
Week 13	@ Jaguars	W 28–11	95%	+5
Week 14	vs Colts	W 38–35	94%	+6
Week 15	@ Lions	W 38–17	96%	+4
Week 16	vs Texans	L 20–23	92%	−92
Week 17	vs Falcons	L 22–28	86%	−86

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −41 vs SF

Wk 2 +23 @ CAR

Wk 3 −83 vs NYG

Wk 4 +64 @ LA

Wk 5 −15 @ NO

Wk 6 −50 vs CAR

Wk 8 −84 @ TEN

Wk 9 −20 @ SEA

Wk 10 +45 vs ARI

Wk 11 −39 vs NO

Wk 12 +4 @ ATL

Wk 13 +5 @ JAX

Wk 14 +6 vs IND

Wk 15 +4 @ DET

Wk 16 −92 vs HOU

Wk 17 −86 vs ATL

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Injuries	+15.5	+0.97
3rd & 4th downs	+12.0	+0.75
Fumble bounces	+11.0	+0.69
Rest	+1.4	+0.09
Judgment calls	−15.3	−0.96
Kicks	−17.5	−1.10