2019 season · final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2019: game by game
The Buccaneers went 7–9 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.7 wins. Luck cost them 3.7: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–6.
Every game
How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs 49ers | L 17–31 | 42% | −42 |
| Week 2 | @ Panthers | W 20–14 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 3 | vs Giants | L 31–32 | 81% | −81 |
| Week 4 | @ Rams | W 55–40 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 5 | @ Saints | L 24–31 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 6 | vs Panthers | L 26–37 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 8 | @ Titans | L 23–27 | 84% | −84 |
| Week 9 | @ Seahawks | L 34–40 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 10 | vs Cardinals | W 30–27 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 11 | vs Saints | L 17–34 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 12 | @ Falcons | W 35–22 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 13 | @ Jaguars | W 28–11 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 14 | vs Colts | W 38–35 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 15 | @ Lions | W 38–17 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 16 | vs Texans | L 20–23 | 93% | −93 |
| Week 17 | vs Falcons | L 22–28 | 87% | −87 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.66 | +14.9 |
| Injuries | +0.31 | +11.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.26 | +12.4 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.4 |
| Judgment calls | −0.25 | −7.8 |
| Kicks | −0.81 | −17.4 |