luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers vs Buccaneers, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Buccaneers 37–26, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 56% favorites.

Final

Carolina Panthers 37
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

October 13, 2019 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −2

Luck index +56 Panthers lucky · −56 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 4, Buccaneers win 6.

  1. 1 CAR 45 TB 20
  2. 2 CAR 34 TB 19
  3. 3 CAR 39 TB 30
  4. 4 CAR 37 TB 34
  5. 5 CAR 40 TB 42
  6. 6 CAR 24 TB 30
  7. 7 CAR 13 TB 24
  8. 8 CAR 31 TB 46
  9. 9 CAR 24 TB 45
  10. 10 CAR 9 TB 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 44% of them, Buccaneers 56%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+13.4%
Panthers by 9–1613.2%
Panthers by 1–816.7%
Level after regulation2.3%
Buccaneers by 1–819.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1615.0%
Buccaneers by 17+19.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.8 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Panthers by 11, without the luck Panthers by 18.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 49 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Slye, 60 yds missed · 54% expected
  • J. Slye, 46 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Gay, 54 yds made · 62% expected
  • J. Slye, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Slye, 41 yds missed · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 3 for 30 yards, Buccaneers 9 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:15 Face Mask on the Buccaneers, 15 yards +5% CAR +1.8 pts
Q2 11:20 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% CAR +0.9 pts
Q2 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% CAR +1.6 pts
Q2 0:08 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB 0.0 pts
Q2 0:08 False Start on the Buccaneers (Kevin Minter), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB 0.0 pts
Q2 0:08 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR 0.0 pts
Q3 14:19 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Chris Manhertz), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% TB +1.6 pts
Q3 8:05 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB 0.0 pts
Q3 7:48 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards 0% CAR +0.9 pts
Q4 14:01 Face Mask on the Panthers, 15 yards 0% TB +1.6 pts
Q4 9:55 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Vernon Hargreaves III), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.3 pts
Q4 9:32 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 5 yards 0% TB +0.3 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:25 J. Slye made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 6 of 9 from 45+ before +5% CAR CAR: Punt
2 Q1 12:08 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% CAR TB: Punt
3 Q1 7:20 The Panthers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:15 Face Mask on the Buccaneers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:11 The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +5% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q2 14:17 The Panthers fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% TB CAR: Punt
7 Q2 1:16 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CAR TB: Punt
8 Q2 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% CAR CAR: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Demar Dotson (TB T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Alex Cappa (TB G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mike Edwards (TB FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Breshad Perriman (TB WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Trai Turner (CAR G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Greg Little (CAR T), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 99% · Buccaneers 1%

Final margin
Panthers by 11
Luck in points
7.8 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 18.8
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 44% · Buccaneers 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Panthers · Buccaneers

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