luckadjusted

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers vs Buccaneers, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Buccaneers 37–26, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 2.3 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 56% favorites.

Final

Carolina Panthers 37
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

October 13, 2019 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −2

Luck index +50 Panthers lucky · −50 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 5, Buccaneers win 5.

  1. 1 CAR 25 TB 0
  2. 2 CAR 29 TB 13
  3. 3 CAR 44 TB 32
  4. 4 CAR 30 TB 24
  5. 5 CAR 21 TB 19
  6. 6 CAR 33 TB 35
  7. 7 CAR 25 TB 34
  8. 8 CAR 20 TB 33
  9. 9 CAR 34 TB 53
  10. 10 CAR 10 TB 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 50% of them, Buccaneers 50%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+15.1%
Panthers by 9–1614.6%
Panthers by 1–818.3%
Level after regulation3.6%
Buccaneers by 1–817.0%
Buccaneers by 9–1614.4%
Buccaneers by 17+17.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 16.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 49 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Slye, 60 yds missed · 51% expected
  • J. Slye, 46 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Gay, 54 yds made · 61% expected
  • J. Slye, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Slye, 41 yds missed · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:08 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% CAR TB: Punt
2 Q1 7:20 The Panthers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:15 Face Mask on the Buccaneers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:11 The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:59 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% TB CAR: Punt
6 Q2 9:17 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% CAR TB: Turnover
7 Q2 1:16 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% CAR TB: Punt
8 Q2 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% CAR CAR: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Demar Dotson (TB T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Alex Cappa (TB G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mike Edwards (TB FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Breshad Perriman (TB WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Trai Turner (CAR G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Greg Little (CAR T), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 99% · Buccaneers 1%

Final margin
Panthers by 11
Luck in points
5.8 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 16.8
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 50% · Buccaneers 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Panthers · Buccaneers

More from Week 6 2019