luckadjusted

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Jets, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jets stole one. They beat the Cowboys 24–22, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10.

The Jets won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:43 left): the Cowboys’ two-point try failed, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 22
New York Jets 24

October 13, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −7

Luck index +96 Jets very lucky · −96 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Jets win 0.

  1. 1 DAL 34 NYJ 0
  2. 2 DAL 37 NYJ 10
  3. 3 DAL 32 NYJ 9
  4. 4 DAL 33 NYJ 13
  5. 5 DAL 31 NYJ 13
  6. 6 DAL 36 NYJ 20
  7. 7 DAL 33 NYJ 20
  8. 8 DAL 26 NYJ 16
  9. 9 DAL 19 NYJ 14
  10. 10 DAL 37 NYJ 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Jets won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

32 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained +0.10 +0.15 worse by 0.05
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed +0.35 +0.09 worse by 0.26
Jets offenseEPA per play gained +0.35 +0.00 better by 0.35
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.10 +0.14 better by 0.04

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 96% of them, Jets 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+66.3%
Cowboys by 9–1619.3%
Cowboys by 1–89.7%
Level after regulation0.5%
Jets by 1–83.4%
Jets by 9–160.7%
Jets by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 5.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • B. Maher, 62 yds made · 51% expected
  • B. Maher, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. Maher, 40 yds missed · 87% expected
  • S. Ficken, 38 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:18 The Jets converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +9% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:24 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +8% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 6:21 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 3:51 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +10% NYJ DAL: Punt
5 Q3 8:02 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Cedrick Wilson Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 35 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +8% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
6 Q4 6:36 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:40 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% NYJ NYJ: End of game
8 Q4 0:43 The Cowboys’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +14% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brent Qvale (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kelechi Osemele (NYJ G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Avery Williamson (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Quincy Enunwa (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Henry Anderson (NYJ DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Randall Cobb (DAL WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • La'el Collins (DAL T), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 23% · Jets 77%

Final margin
Jets by 2
Luck in points
3.3 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 96% · Jets 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Cowboys · Jets

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