luckadjusted

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Chiefs, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Chiefs 31–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Chiefs had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.8 points to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:09 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 12, worth 21 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Houston Texans 31
Kansas City Chiefs 24

October 13, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −3.5

Luck index +29 Texans lucky · −29 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 7, Chiefs win 3.

  1. 1 HOU 40 KC 14
  2. 2 HOU 27 KC 9
  3. 3 HOU 49 KC 35
  4. 4 HOU 24 KC 14
  5. 5 HOU 30 KC 23
  6. 6 HOU 38 KC 34
  7. 7 HOU 26 KC 24
  8. 8 HOU 28 KC 31
  9. 9 HOU 30 KC 38
  10. 10 HOU 24 KC 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 71% of them, Chiefs 29%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+23.4%
Texans by 9–1620.9%
Texans by 1–824.4%
Level after regulation3.7%
Chiefs by 1–815.5%
Chiefs by 9–167.9%
Chiefs by 17+4.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 5.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • H. Butker, 50 yds missed · 74% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 46 yds missed · 78% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:10 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +13% KC KC: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:53 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +18% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:39 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +12% KC HOU: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:32 The Chiefs fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% HOU KC: End of half
5 Q3 11:00 K. Fairbairn missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before +11% KC HOU: Turnover
6 Q3 0:09 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +21% KC HOU: Touchdown
7 Q4 12:47 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% KC KC: Punt
8 Q4 9:19 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% KC KC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Eric Fisher (KC T), out · 1.3 pts
  • Sammy Watkins (KC WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Chris Jones (KC DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Chris Jones (KC DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (KC T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Hitchens (KC LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (KC G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Johnathan Joseph (HOU CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Lamar Miller (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 92% · Chiefs 8%

Final margin
Texans by 7
Luck in points
1.3 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 71% · Chiefs 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Texans · Chiefs

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