Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Texans at Chiefs, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?
The Texans beat the Chiefs 31–24, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
Before kickoff the Chiefs were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:32 left): the Chiefs fumbled and the Texans recovered, worth 13 points of win probability to the Texans.
Final
 Houston Texans | 31 |
|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Texans lucky · −29 Chiefs
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texans win 7, Chiefs win 3.
- 1 HOU 49 KC 23
- 2 HOU 31 KC 13
- 3 HOU 31 KC 17
- 4 HOU 31 KC 21
- 5 HOU 34 KC 27
- 6 HOU 35 KC 31
- 7 HOU 30 KC 28
- 8 HOU 13 KC 16
- 9 HOU 23 KC 30
- 10 HOU 7 KC 23
Your call
Did the Texans earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texans win 71% of them, Chiefs 29%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texans by 17+ | 24.1% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 24.9% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Chiefs by 1–8 | 15.5% |
| Chiefs by 9–16 | 7.4% |
| Chiefs by 17+ | 4.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- H. Butker, 41 yds made · 88% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 44 yds made · 83% expected
- H. Butker, 50 yds missed · 72% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 46 yds missed · 79% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Texans 10 for 70 yards, Chiefs 11 for 79 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Illegal Double-Team Block on the Chiefs (Anthony Sherman), 9 yards | +1% HOU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 13:52 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 10 yards | +7% HOU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 13:31 | False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.1 pts |
| Q1 12:19 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% HOU +1.7 pts |
| Q1 10:50 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% HOU +1.8 pts |
| Q1 5:46 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards | +1% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 5:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans, 15 yards | +5% KC +2.4 pts |
| Q2 12:10 | False Start on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:31 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Phillip Gaines), 15 yards | +4% KC +1.5 pts |
| Q2 10:43 | Defensive Holding on the Texans (Phillip Gaines), 5 yards | 0% KC +0.2 pts |
| Q2 2:18 | Defensive Holding on the Texans, 5 yards | +2% KC +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:07 | Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Bashaud Breeland), 5 yards | +3% HOU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:07 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% KC +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:58 | Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Frank Clark), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% HOU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:16 | Defensive Holding on the Chiefs, 5 yards | +2% HOU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 0:39 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% KC +0.7 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KC +0.3 pts |
| Q4 14:13 | Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Morris Claiborne), 5 yards | 0% HOU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:47 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +11% KC +1.8 pts |
| Q4 9:19 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +11% KC +1.8 pts |
| Q4 8:08 | Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +8% KC +1.5 pts |
Texans penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Chiefs’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:53 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +10% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 1:44 | H. Butker missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +8% HOU | KC: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 0:32 | The Chiefs fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% HOU | KC: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 11:00 | K. Fairbairn missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before | +11% KC | HOU: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 6:36 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +9% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 12:47 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% KC | KC: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 9:19 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% KC | KC: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 8:08 | Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +8% KC | KC: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Eric Fisher (KC T), out · 1.3 pts
- Sammy Watkins (KC WR), out · 0.9 pts
- Chris Jones (KC DE), out · 0.9 pts
- Chris Jones (KC DT), out · 0.8 pts
- Andrew Wylie (KC T), out · 0.6 pts
- Anthony Hitchens (KC LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Andrew Wylie (KC G), out · 0.3 pts
- Johnathan Joseph (HOU CB), out · 0.9 pts
- Lamar Miller (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texans 93% · Chiefs 7%
- Final margin
- Texans by 7
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for the Texans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texans by 5.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Texans 71% · Chiefs 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · 
Texans · 
Chiefs
More from Week 6 2019
- Giants at Patriots NE 35–14 · replay 59% for the winner
- Panthers vs Buccaneers CAR 37–26 · replay 44% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 23–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Saints at Jaguars NO 13–6 · replay 49% for the winner
- Eagles at Vikings MIN 38–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Seahawks at Browns SEA 32–28 · replay 60% for the winner
- Washington at Dolphins WAS 17–16 · replay 88% for the winner
- Falcons at Cardinals ARI 34–33 · replay 29% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 20–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Cowboys at Jets NYJ 24–22 · replay 3% for the winner
- Titans at Broncos DEN 16–0 · replay 88% for the winner
- Steelers at Chargers PIT 24–17 · replay 16% for the winner
- Lions at Packers GB 23–22 · replay 56% for the winner