2019 season · final
Kansas City Chiefs, 2019: game by game
The Chiefs went 12–4 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.6 wins. Luck added 1.4: the 9th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–4.
Playoffs: 3–0, replay wins 2.3.
Every game
How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Jaguars | W 40–26 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 2 | @ Raiders | W 28–10 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 3 | vs Ravens | W 33–28 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 4 | @ Lions | W 34–30 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 5 | vs Colts | L 13–19 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 6 | vs Texans | L 24–31 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 7 | @ Broncos | W 30–6 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 8 | vs Packers | L 24–31 | 58% | −58 |
| Week 9 | vs Vikings | W 26–23 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 10 | @ Titans | L 32–35 | 63% | −63 |
| Week 11 | vs Chargers | W 24–17 | 36% | +64 |
| Week 13 | vs Raiders | W 40–9 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 14 | @ Patriots | W 23–16 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 15 | vs Broncos | W 23–3 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 16 | @ Bears | W 26–3 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 17 | vs Chargers | W 31–21 | 81% | +19 |
| Divisional round | vs Texans | W 51–31 | 98% | +2 |
| AFC Championship | vs Titans | W 35–24 | 84% | +16 |
| Super Bowl | vs 49ers | W 31–20 | 51% | +49 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.36 | +11.5 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.08 | −12.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.18 | −12.7 |
| Injuries | −0.58 | −22.7 |