luckadjusted

Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Chiefs, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Chiefs 31–24, but the Chiefs played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 9.1 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:05 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 1, worth 17 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 31
Kansas City Chiefs 24

October 27, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Packers −5

Luck index +60 Packers very lucky · −60 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 4, Chiefs win 6.

  1. 1 GB 33 KC 10
  2. 2 GB 31 KC 20
  3. 3 GB 16 KC 10
  4. 4 GB 30 KC 28
  5. 5 GB 20 KC 22
  6. 6 GB 28 KC 33
  7. 7 GB 24 KC 31
  8. 8 GB 16 KC 26
  9. 9 GB 13 KC 29
  10. 10 GB 13 KC 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 40% of them, Chiefs 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+7.1%
Packers by 9–1611.8%
Packers by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation3.1%
Chiefs by 1–826.7%
Chiefs by 9–1616.8%
Chiefs by 17+14.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 4.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 50 yds missed · 71% expected
  • H. Butker, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Crosby, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:24 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +15% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:39 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% KC KC: Punt
3 Q1 6:23 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% KC GB: Punt
4 Q3 7:25 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% GB GB: Field goal
5 Q3 2:15 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% KC GB: Field goal
6 Q3 1:24 The Chiefs fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% GB KC: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:05 The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +17% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q4 9:09 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers, 5 yardsJudgment calls +7% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Patrick Mahomes (KC QB), out, replaced by m.moore · 7.1 pts
  • Eric Fisher (KC T), out · 1.3 pts
  • Frank Clark (KC DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chris Jones (KC DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kendall Fuller (KC CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (KC G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Davante Adams (GB WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Lane Taylor (GB G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Raven Greene (GB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 77% · Chiefs 23%

Final margin
Packers by 7
Luck in points
11.2 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Packers 40% · Chiefs 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Packers · Chiefs

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