luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Chiefs, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Chiefs 31–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Packers win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:24 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 9, worth 11 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 31
Kansas City Chiefs 24

October 27, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Packers −5

Luck index +58 Packers lucky · −58 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 4, Chiefs win 6.

  1. 1 GB 40 KC 20
  2. 2 GB 16 KC 3
  3. 3 GB 13 KC 6
  4. 4 GB 20 KC 17
  5. 5 GB 10 KC 13
  6. 6 GB 17 KC 23
  7. 7 GB 14 KC 23
  8. 8 GB 12 KC 25
  9. 9 GB 20 KC 38
  10. 10 GB 10 KC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 42% of them, Chiefs 58%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+7.6%
Packers by 9–1612.9%
Packers by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation2.7%
Chiefs by 1–826.8%
Chiefs by 9–1615.2%
Chiefs by 17+14.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.9 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 7, without the luck Chiefs by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 50 yds missed · 69% expected
  • H. Butker, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Crosby, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 4 for 25 yards, Chiefs 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:26 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.6 pts
Q1 10:39 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Alex Okafor), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.7 pts
Q1 9:39 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% KC +2.9 pts
Q1 2:09 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Chiefs (Blake Bell), 10 yards +2% GB +0.9 pts
Q2 10:11 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Damien Wilson), 15 yards +4% GB +0.8 pts
Q3 3:18 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.9 pts
Q4 9:09 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers, 5 yards +7% KC +2.1 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:24 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:39 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% KC KC: Punt
3 Q3 7:25 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% GB GB: Field goal
4 Q3 2:15 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% KC GB: Field goal
5 Q3 1:24 The Chiefs fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% GB KC: Touchdown
6 Q4 14:05 The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 9:09 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers, 5 yardsJudgment calls +7% KC KC: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:16 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% KC KC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Patrick Mahomes (KC QB), out, replaced by m.moore · 7.1 pts
  • Eric Fisher (KC T), out · 1.3 pts
  • Frank Clark (KC DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chris Jones (KC DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kendall Fuller (KC CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (KC G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Davante Adams (GB WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Lane Taylor (GB G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Raven Greene (GB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 69% · Chiefs 31%

Final margin
Packers by 7
Luck in points
10.9 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Packers 42% · Chiefs 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Packers · Chiefs

More from Week 8 2019