luckadjusted

Week 8 2019 · October 27, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals vs Rams, Week 8 2019: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Bengals 24–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.3 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Rams were 81% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:38 left): the Bengals converted 4th & 2, worth 11 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 10
Los Angeles Rams 24

October 27, 2019 · Wembley Stadium · Closing line: Rams −12

Luck index +9 Rams about even · −9 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Rams win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 20 LA 14
  2. 2 CIN 20 LA 22
  3. 3 CIN 27 LA 31
  4. 4 CIN 10 LA 17
  5. 5 CIN 6 LA 16
  6. 6 CIN 14 LA 26
  7. 7 CIN 13 LA 28
  8. 8 CIN 0 LA 19
  9. 9 CIN 7 LA 31
  10. 10 CIN 7 LA 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 9% of them, Rams 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.5%
Bengals by 9–162.0%
Bengals by 1–85.8%
Level after regulation1.2%
Rams by 1–818.0%
Rams by 9–1623.1%
Rams by 17+49.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 19.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Bullock, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:27 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% LA LA: Field goal
2 Q1 5:28 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +11% CIN CIN: Field goal
3 Q1 2:38 The Bengals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +11% CIN CIN: Field goal
4 Q2 13:47 The Rams converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% LA LA: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:35 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% LA LA: Touchdown
6 Q2 8:51 The Bengals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:20 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% LA CIN: Punt
8 Q3 12:48 The Rams converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Aqib Talib (LA CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • John Johnson (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Clay Matthews (LA LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dre Kirkpatrick (CIN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • John Ross (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andre Smith (CIN T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Darqueze Dennard (CIN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • John Miller (CIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Carl Lawson (CIN DE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 14
Luck in points
5.7 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 19.7
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 9% · Rams 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2019 games · Bengals · Rams

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