2019 season · final
Los Angeles Rams, 2019: game by game
The Rams went 9–7 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.0 wins. Luck cost them 1.0: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.
Every game
How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Panthers | W 30–27 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 2 | vs Saints | W 27–9 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 3 | @ Browns | W 20–13 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 4 | vs Buccaneers | L 40–55 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 5 | @ Seahawks | L 29–30 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 6 | vs 49ers | L 7–20 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 7 | @ Falcons | W 37–10 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 8 | vs Bengals | W 24–10 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 10 | @ Steelers | L 12–17 | 78% | −78 |
| Week 11 | vs Bears | W 17–7 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 12 | vs Ravens | L 6–45 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 13 | @ Cardinals | W 34–7 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 14 | vs Seahawks | W 28–12 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 15 | @ Cowboys | L 21–44 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 16 | @ 49ers | L 31–34 | 37% | −37 |
| Week 17 | vs Cardinals | W 31–24 | 62% | +38 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Rams’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Rest | +0.02 | +0.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.07 | −1.5 |
| Injuries | −0.13 | −4.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.23 | −10.2 |
| Kicks | −0.57 | −9.2 |