luckadjusted

2019 season · final

Los Angeles Rams, 2019: game by game

The Rams went 9–7 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.1 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.

Every game

How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Panthers W 30–27 91% +9
Week 2 vs Saints W 27–9 79% +21
Week 3 @ Browns W 20–13 83% +17
Week 4 vs Buccaneers L 40–55 64% −64
Week 5 @ Seahawks L 29–30 57% −57
Week 6 vs 49ers L 7–20 10% −10
Week 7 @ Falcons W 37–10 80% +20
Week 8 vs Bengals W 24–10 91% +9
Week 10 @ Steelers L 12–17 78% −78
Week 11 vs Bears W 17–7 80% +20
Week 12 vs Ravens L 6–45 3% −3
Week 13 @ Cardinals W 34–7 96% +4
Week 14 vs Seahawks W 28–12 87% +13
Week 15 @ Cowboys L 21–44 8% −8
Week 16 @ 49ers L 31–34 43% −43
Week 17 vs Cardinals W 31–24 62% +38

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Rams’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Rest+0.8+0.05
Fumble bounces−1.6−0.10
Injuries−6.5−0.41
3rd & 4th downs−7.2−0.45
Kicks−8.9−0.56
Judgment calls−21.6−1.35