luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 3, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Seahawks, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Rams 30–29, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:15 left): G. Zuerlein missed 44-yard field goal, worth 42 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 29
Seattle Seahawks 30

October 3, 2019 · CenturyLink Field · Closing line: Seahawks −1.5

Luck index +57 Seahawks lucky · −57 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 6, Seahawks win 4.

  1. 1 LA 40 SEA 16
  2. 2 LA 37 SEA 20
  3. 3 LA 31 SEA 17
  4. 4 LA 31 SEA 20
  5. 5 LA 35 SEA 28
  6. 6 LA 26 SEA 24
  7. 7 LA 41 SEA 43
  8. 8 LA 20 SEA 27
  9. 9 LA 30 SEA 44
  10. 10 LA 20 SEA 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 57% of them, Seahawks 43%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+16.5%
Rams by 9–1616.9%
Rams by 1–822.2%
Level after regulation2.8%
Seahawks by 1–818.6%
Seahawks by 9–1612.9%
Seahawks by 17+10.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 0.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Myers, 48 yds missed · 74% expected
  • J. Myers, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 44 yds missed · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 0:28 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +15% SEA SEA: Field goal
2 Q4 12:55 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +12% LA LA: Field goal
3 Q4 11:16 Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:48 The Rams converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +12% LA LA: Field goal
5 Q4 5:45 Roughing the Passer on the Rams (Clay Matthews), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 175 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +11% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:34 The Seahawks converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +25% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:12 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +20% SEA LA: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:15 G. Zuerlein missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +42% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ed Dickson (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (SEA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (LA SS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 48% · Seahawks 52%

Final margin
Seahawks by 1
Luck in points
0.1 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Rams 57% · Seahawks 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Rams · Seahawks

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