luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 7, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at 49ers, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Browns 31–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9.0 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:58 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 9 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

Cleveland Browns 3
San Francisco 49ers 31

October 7, 2019 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −5

Luck index +4 49ers about even · −4 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, 49ers win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 21 SF 24
  2. 2 CLE 24 SF 31
  3. 3 CLE 7 SF 17
  4. 4 CLE 17 SF 30
  5. 5 CLE 24 SF 39
  6. 6 CLE 10 SF 27
  7. 7 CLE 13 SF 34
  8. 8 CLE 17 SF 44
  9. 9 CLE 0 SF 31
  10. 10 CLE 18 SF 58

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 4% of them, 49ers 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.1%
Browns by 9–160.9%
Browns by 1–82.8%
Level after regulation0.9%
49ers by 1–87.8%
49ers by 9–1616.4%
49ers by 17+71.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 31.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Gould, 47 yds missed · 75% expected
  • A. Seibert, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Gould, 52 yds missed · 65% expected
  • R. Gould, 32 yds blocked · 94% expected
  • R. Gould, 44 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:18 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +3% CLE SF: Punt
2 Q1 11:16 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% SF CLE: Punt
3 Q1 6:30 The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +3% SF SF: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:42 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedThe Browns fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% SF CLE: Field goal
5 Q2 13:36 The Browns converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +2% CLE CLE: Field goal
6 Q2 9:16 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +3% CLE SF: Punt
7 Q2 4:58 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% SF CLE: Punt
8 Q2 2:05 The 49ers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +3% SF SF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Staley (SF T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (SF CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashard Higgins (CLE WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Genard Avery (CLE LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · 49ers 100%

Final margin
49ers by 28
Luck in points
3.4 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 31.4
Replay with same day's form
Browns 4% · 49ers 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Browns · 49ers

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