luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Chargers, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Chargers 20–13, but the replays lean toward the Chargers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:49 left): Return touchdown by the Chargers, worth 9 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Denver Broncos 20
Los Angeles Chargers 13

October 6, 2019 · StubHub Center · Closing line: Chargers −4

Luck index +65 Broncos very lucky · −65 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 4, Chargers win 6.

  1. 1 DEN 33 LAC 14
  2. 2 DEN 34 LAC 24
  3. 3 DEN 25 LAC 19
  4. 4 DEN 29 LAC 27
  5. 5 DEN 34 LAC 35
  6. 6 DEN 35 LAC 40
  7. 7 DEN 23 LAC 32
  8. 8 DEN 6 LAC 20
  9. 9 DEN 17 LAC 37
  10. 10 DEN 14 LAC 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 35% of them, Chargers 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+6.8%
Broncos by 9–1610.5%
Broncos by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation1.8%
Chargers by 1–824.3%
Chargers by 9–1618.9%
Chargers by 17+19.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Broncos by 7, without the luck Broncos by 7.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 48 yds blocked · 71% expected
  • B. McManus, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. McManus, 54 yds missed · 62% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • B. McManus, 46 yds made · 75% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 32 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 12 for 122 yards, Chargers 4 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:58 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Geremy Davis), 10 yards +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q1 4:53 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Von Miller), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% LAC +0.3 pts
Q1 0:40 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +1% LAC +1.6 pts
Q2 14:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Duke Dawson), 21 yards +5% LAC +2.5 pts
Q2 8:53 Intentional Grounding on the Chargers (Philip Rivers), 14 yards +3% DEN +1.3 pts
Q2 7:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 9 yards +1% DEN +1.1 pts
Q2 2:24 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Isaac Yiadom), 5 yards +2% LAC +0.9 pts
Q2 1:55 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Isaac Yiadom), 5 yards +3% LAC +1.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +2% DEN +0.9 pts
Q3 13:27 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 10 yards +1% LAC +0.9 pts
Q3 11:13 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.8 pts
Q3 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% LAC +1.9 pts
Q4 11:26 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Broncos, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% LAC +1.8 pts
Q4 8:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Davontae Harris), 31 yards +9% LAC +1.7 pts
Q4 4:22 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Von Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN 0.0 pts
Q4 2:27 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Emmanuel Sanders), 10 yards +2% LAC +0.9 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:33 The Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:28 The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Duke Dawson), 21 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 88 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +5% LAC LAC: Missed field goal
4 Q2 8:53 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Chargers (Philip Rivers), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 263 snaps before, position avg 1 per 751 +7% DEN LAC: Missed field goal
5 Q3 0:49 Return touchdown by the ChargersSpecial teams +9% LAC LAC: Opp touchdown
6 Q4 9:00 B. McManus missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before +6% LAC DEN: Punt
7 Q4 8:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Davontae Harris), 31 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 51 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +9% LAC LAC: Field goal
8 Q4 3:35 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% DEN LAC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Melvin Ingram (LAC DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Hunter Henry (LAC TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Adrian Phillips (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Adam Gotsis (DEN DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Josey Jewell (DEN LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 90% · Chargers 10%

Final margin
Broncos by 7
Luck in points
0.9 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 35% · Chargers 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Broncos · Chargers

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