luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Giants, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Giants 28–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.8 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 4, worth 10 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 28
New York Giants 10

October 6, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −5.5

Luck index +51 Vikings lucky · −51 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 5, Giants win 5.

  1. 1 MIN 31 NYG 9
  2. 2 MIN 20 NYG 7
  3. 3 MIN 17 NYG 10
  4. 4 MIN 17 NYG 13
  5. 5 MIN 26 NYG 24
  6. 6 MIN 21 NYG 23
  7. 7 MIN 27 NYG 32
  8. 8 MIN 27 NYG 35
  9. 9 MIN 14 NYG 27
  10. 10 MIN 9 NYG 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 49% of them, Giants 51%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+9.7%
Vikings by 9–1613.7%
Vikings by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation6.8%
Giants by 1–823.0%
Giants by 9–1614.3%
Giants by 17+9.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 14.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Bailey, 48 yds made · 72% expected
  • D. Bailey, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Rosas, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Bailey, 45 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:43 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% MIN MIN: Field goal
2 Q1 7:19 Illegal Contact on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NYG NYG: Punt
3 Q2 15:00 The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:56 D. Bailey made 48-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +7% MIN MIN: Turnover
5 Q2 3:41 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% MIN MIN: Turnover
6 Q2 2:22 The Vikings fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYG MIN: Field goal
7 Q3 9:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Linval Joseph), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 192 snaps before, position avg 1 per 411 +9% NYG NYG: Field goal
8 Q3 0:15 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +6% MIN NYG: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Alec Ogletree (NYG LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ryan Connelly (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mackensie Alexander (MIN CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 97% · Giants 3%

Final margin
Vikings by 18
Luck in points
3.6 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 14.4
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 49% · Giants 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Vikings · Giants

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