2019 season · final
Minnesota Vikings, 2019: game by game
The Vikings went 10–6 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.5 wins. Luck added 0.5: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–4.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.4.
Every game
How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Falcons | W 28–12 | 26% | +74 |
| Week 2 | @ Packers | L 16–21 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 3 | vs Raiders | W 34–14 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 4 | @ Bears | L 6–16 | 39% | −39 |
| Week 5 | @ Giants | W 28–10 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 6 | vs Eagles | W 38–20 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 7 | @ Lions | W 42–30 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 8 | vs Washington | W 19–9 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 9 | @ Chiefs | L 23–26 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 10 | @ Cowboys | W 28–24 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 11 | vs Broncos | W 27–23 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 13 | @ Seahawks | L 30–37 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 14 | vs Lions | W 20–7 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 15 | @ Chargers | W 39–10 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 16 | vs Packers | L 10–23 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 17 | vs Bears | L 19–21 | 91% | −91 |
| Wild Card | @ Saints | W 26–20 | 35% | +65 |
| Divisional round | @ 49ers | L 10–27 | 4% | −4 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +19.3 | +1.21 |
| Fumble bounces | +15.7 | +0.98 |
| Kicks | +3.5 | +0.22 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +1.9 | +0.12 |
| Rest | −0.4 | −0.02 |
| Judgment calls | −23.0 | −1.44 |