2019 season · final
Minnesota Vikings, 2019: game by game
The Vikings went 10–6 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–4.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.4.
Every game
How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Falcons | W 28–12 | 26% | +74 |
| Week 2 | @ Packers | L 16–21 | 38% | −38 |
| Week 3 | vs Raiders | W 34–14 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 4 | @ Bears | L 6–16 | 43% | −43 |
| Week 5 | @ Giants | W 28–10 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 6 | vs Eagles | W 38–20 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 7 | @ Lions | W 42–30 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 8 | vs Washington | W 19–9 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 9 | @ Chiefs | L 23–26 | 45% | −45 |
| Week 10 | @ Cowboys | W 28–24 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 11 | vs Broncos | W 27–23 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 13 | @ Seahawks | L 30–37 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 14 | vs Lions | W 20–7 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 15 | @ Chargers | W 39–10 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 16 | vs Packers | L 10–23 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 17 | vs Bears | L 19–21 | 91% | −91 |
| Wild Card | @ Saints | W 26–20 | 36% | +64 |
| Divisional round | @ 49ers | L 10–27 | 4% | −4 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.56 | +20.6 |
| Injuries | +0.32 | +14.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.05 | −0.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.12 | −11.6 |
| Kicks | −0.39 | +3.8 |