luckadjusted

Week 15 2019 · December 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Chargers, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Chargers 39–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:23 left): Return touchdown by the Vikings, worth 61 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 39
Los Angeles Chargers 10

December 15, 2019 · StubHub Center · Closing line: Vikings −1

Luck index +26 Vikings lucky · −26 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 7, Chargers win 3.

  1. 1 MIN 37 LAC 10
  2. 2 MIN 32 LAC 13
  3. 3 MIN 27 LAC 13
  4. 4 MIN 34 LAC 23
  5. 5 MIN 28 LAC 21
  6. 6 MIN 22 LAC 17
  7. 7 MIN 16 LAC 14
  8. 8 MIN 13 LAC 16
  9. 9 MIN 19 LAC 27
  10. 10 MIN 10 LAC 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 74% of them, Chargers 26%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 29.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+25.6%
Vikings by 9–1622.1%
Vikings by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation3.5%
Chargers by 1–814.8%
Chargers by 9–167.0%
Chargers by 17+4.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 29. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 18.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 41 yds made · 83% expected
  • D. Bailey, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Bailey, 44 yds made · 78% expected
  • D. Bailey, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • D. Bailey, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:54 The Chargers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +11% LAC LAC: Field goal
3 Q1 1:34 The Chargers fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% MIN LAC: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:20 The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:46 The Chargers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% LAC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:55 The Vikings converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 Q2 2:06 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +13% MIN LAC: Opp touchdown
8 Q2 0:23 The Chargers fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +61% MIN LAC: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Roderic Teamer (LAC CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Desmond King (LAC CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Forrest Lamp (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 100% · Chargers 0%

Final margin
Vikings by 29
Luck in points
11.0 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 18.0
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 74% · Chargers 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · Vikings · Chargers

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