luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2019 · December 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Panthers, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Panthers 30–24, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:00 left): Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 30
Carolina Panthers 24

December 15, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −6

Luck index +20 Seahawks about even · −20 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 SEA 53 CAR 20
  2. 2 SEA 31 CAR 7
  3. 3 SEA 26 CAR 7
  4. 4 SEA 38 CAR 23
  5. 5 SEA 38 CAR 26
  6. 6 SEA 40 CAR 31
  7. 7 SEA 30 CAR 24
  8. 8 SEA 19 CAR 17
  9. 9 SEA 20 CAR 23
  10. 10 SEA 21 CAR 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 80% of them, Panthers 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+35.2%
Seahawks by 9–1620.8%
Seahawks by 1–823.1%
Level after regulation1.6%
Panthers by 1–811.3%
Panthers by 9–165.9%
Panthers by 17+2.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.0 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Seahawks by 6, without the luck Seahawks by 14. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 52 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Myers, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 5 for 40 yards, Panthers 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:27 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.8 pts
Q2 13:08 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +2% CAR +1.0 pts
Q2 11:07 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Gerald McCoy), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% SEA +2.6 pts
Q2 1:38 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers (Ross Cockrell), 10 yards +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 1:30 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.8 pts
Q4 3:00 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% CAR +1.8 pts
Q4 2:29 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +3% CAR +0.7 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:46 The Panthers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +5% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:07 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Gerald McCoy), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 646 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:06 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% CAR CAR: Punt
4 Q3 11:40 J. Slye made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 11 of 16 from 45+ before +4% CAR CAR: Turnover
5 Q3 6:37 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% CAR CAR: Turnover
6 Q3 5:56 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% CAR CAR: Turnover
7 Q4 3:00 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% CAR –
8 Q4 2:24 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% SEA SEA: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Greg Olsen (CAR TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Greg Little (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dontari Poe (CAR NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Van Roten (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Shaquill Griffin (SEA CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (SEA DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Justin Britt (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Mychal Kendricks (SEA LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tedric Thompson (SEA FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Seahawks by 6
Luck in points
8.0 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 14.0
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 80% · Panthers 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · Seahawks · Panthers

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