luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2019 NFL season · December 12, 2019–December 16

Week 15 2019: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Patriots beat the Bengals 34–13 in a game they win 38% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 15 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 5 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Falcons 29–22 @ 49ers 22% 65% Deserved
Jaguars 20–16 @ Raiders 30% 25% Lucky
Texans 24–21 @ Titans 41% 72% Deserved
Cardinals 38–24 vs Browns 41% 85% Deserved
Cowboys 44–21 vs Rams 47% 93% Deserved
Bills 17–10 @ Steelers 47% 74% Deserved

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jaguars W 20–16 @ Raiders 25% +75
2 Eagles W 37–27 @ Washington 30% +70
3 Patriots W 34–13 @ Bengals 38% +62
4 Falcons W 29–22 @ 49ers 65% +35
5 Texans W 24–21 @ Titans 72% +28
6 Bills W 17–10 @ Steelers 74% +26
7 Vikings W 39–10 @ Chargers 74% +26
8 Packers W 21–13 vs Bears 78% +22
9 Seahawks W 30–24 @ Panthers 80% +20
10 Cardinals W 38–24 vs Browns 85% +15
11 Saints W 34–7 vs Colts 93% +7
12 Cowboys W 44–21 vs Rams 93% +7
13 Giants W 36–20 vs Dolphins 94% +6
14 Buccaneers W 38–17 @ Lions 95% +5
15 Chiefs W 23–3 vs Broncos 98% +2
16 Ravens W 42–21 vs Jets 99% +1
17 Jets L 21–42 @ Ravens 1% −1
18 Broncos L 3–23 @ Chiefs 2% −2
19 Lions L 17–38 vs Buccaneers 5% −5
20 Dolphins L 20–36 @ Giants 6% −6
21 Rams L 21–44 @ Cowboys 7% −7
22 Colts L 7–34 @ Saints 7% −7
23 Browns L 24–38 @ Cardinals 15% −15
24 Panthers L 24–30 vs Seahawks 20% −20
25 Bears L 13–21 @ Packers 22% −22
26 Chargers L 10–39 vs Vikings 26% −26
27 Steelers L 10–17 vs Bills 26% −26
28 Titans L 21–24 vs Texans 28% −28
29 49ers L 22–29 vs Falcons 35% −35
30 Bengals L 13–34 vs Patriots 62% −62
31 Washington L 27–37 vs Eagles 70% −70
32 Raiders L 16–20 vs Jaguars 75% −75