luckadjusted

Week 15 2019 · December 16, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Saints, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Colts 34–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.1 points to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Saints were 72% favorites.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 7
New Orleans Saints 34

December 16, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −8

Luck index +8 Saints about even · −8 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Saints win 9.

  1. 1 IND 17 NO 13
  2. 2 IND 27 NO 29
  3. 3 IND 20 NO 24
  4. 4 IND 13 NO 21
  5. 5 IND 20 NO 30
  6. 6 IND 17 NO 30
  7. 7 IND 6 NO 21
  8. 8 IND 10 NO 29
  9. 9 IND 7 NO 30
  10. 10 IND 14 NO 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 8% of them, Saints 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+0.2%
Colts by 9–161.2%
Colts by 1–85.0%
Level after regulation1.4%
Saints by 1–818.2%
Saints by 9–1622.4%
Saints by 17+51.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 27. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 30.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • W. Lutz, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:18 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% IND IND: Punt
2 Q1 11:28 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% NO IND: Punt
3 Q1 11:22 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Jonathan Williams), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 115 snaps before, position avg 1 per 654 +2% NO NO: Field goal
4 Q1 5:27 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% IND IND: Punt
5 Q1 4:06 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% NO IND: Punt
6 Q2 14:12 The Saints converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q2 12:31 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +2% NO IND: Punt
8 Q2 0:14 Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Tre'Quan Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 334 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +2% IND IND: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Vonn Bell (NO SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Carr (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kenny Moore (IND CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chester Rogers (IND WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Adam Vinatieri (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 27
Luck in points
3.7 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 30.7
Replay with same day's form
Colts 8% · Saints 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · Colts · Saints

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