luckadjusted

Week 15 2019 · December 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Packers, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Bears 21–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Packers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:53 left): the Packers converted 4th & 4, worth 12 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Chicago Bears 13
Green Bay Packers 21

December 15, 2019 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −4

Luck index +22 Packers about even · −22 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 2, Packers win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 27 GB 13
  2. 2 CHI 31 GB 27
  3. 3 CHI 28 GB 30
  4. 4 CHI 26 GB 31
  5. 5 CHI 23 GB 30
  6. 6 CHI 10 GB 20
  7. 7 CHI 9 GB 23
  8. 8 CHI 6 GB 24
  9. 9 CHI 6 GB 28
  10. 10 CHI 10 GB 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 22% of them, Packers 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+2.1%
Bears by 9–166.6%
Bears by 1–811.7%
Level after regulation2.0%
Packers by 1–826.3%
Packers by 9–1620.4%
Packers by 17+30.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 9.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 27 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:33 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% GB GB: Punt
2 Q1 7:04 Kick Catch Interference on the Bears (Cordarrelle Patterson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 333 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +4% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:53 The Packers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +12% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:09 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% CHI GB: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 1:51 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% GB CHI: Field goal
6 Q2 0:16 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Packers (Aaron Rodgers), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 833 snaps before, position avg 1 per 751 +10% CHI GB: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 10:23 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% GB CHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 8:58 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Bobby Massie (CHI T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Roquan Smith (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Gabriel (CHI WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Danny Trevathan (CHI LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Trey Burton (CHI TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Roy Robertson-Harris (CHI DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 1% · Packers 99%

Final margin
Packers by 8
Luck in points
1.0 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
Bears 22% · Packers 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · Bears · Packers

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