luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2019 · December 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Giants, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Dolphins 36–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Dolphins: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Giants were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:24 left): the Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 13 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Miami Dolphins 20
New York Giants 36

December 15, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −3.5

Luck index +6 Giants about even · −6 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Giants win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 19 NYG 13
  2. 2 MIA 24 NYG 27
  3. 3 MIA 27 NYG 33
  4. 4 MIA 23 NYG 33
  5. 5 MIA 23 NYG 35
  6. 6 MIA 17 NYG 31
  7. 7 MIA 3 NYG 20
  8. 8 MIA 17 NYG 38
  9. 9 MIA 15 NYG 42
  10. 10 MIA 19 NYG 53

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Dolphins

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.

32 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained −0.03 +0.04 worse by 0.07
Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed +0.30 +0.18 worse by 0.12
Giants offenseEPA per play gained +0.30 +0.07 better by 0.23
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed −0.03 +0.15 better by 0.19

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 6% of them, Giants 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.4%
Dolphins by 9–161.3%
Dolphins by 1–83.8%
Level after regulation0.9%
Giants by 1–89.3%
Giants by 9–1618.6%
Giants by 17+65.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.4 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 16, without the luck Giants by 10.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 49 yds missed · 64% expected
  • J. Sanders, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Sanders, 47 yds made · 68% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 7 for 42 yards, Giants 4 for 32 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:59 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins, 5 yards +5% NYG +1.7 pts
Q1 8:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Sterling Shepard), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% MIA +3.3 pts
Q1 5:57 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Alec Ogletree), 5 yards +3% MIA +1.0 pts
Q2 12:54 False Start on the Dolphins (Albert Wilson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.5 pts
Q2 8:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 24 yards +8% NYG +2.5 pts
Q2 1:31 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +4% MIA +0.7 pts
Q3 12:24 Illegal Use of Hands on the Dolphins (Andrew Van Ginkel), 5 yards +4% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 6:44 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 2 yards 0% NYG +0.2 pts
Q3 6:24 False Start on the Dolphins, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.5 pts
Q3 5:26 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Dolphins, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG 0.0 pts
Q4 8:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Deandre Baker), 7 yards 0% MIA +0.4 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:44 J. Sanders missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 7 of 11 from 45+ before +7% NYG MIA: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 9:59 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins, 5 yardsJudgment calls +5% NYG NYG: Punt
3 Q1 8:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Sterling Shepard), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 413 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +8% MIA MIA: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 2:24 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +13% NYG MIA: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:53 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q2 8:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 24 yardsJudgment calls +8% NYG NYG: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:09 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% MIA MIA: Field goal
8 Q3 8:54 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% NYG MIA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Evan Engram (NYG TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kevin Zeitler (NYG G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ryan Lewis (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bobby McCain (MIA FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Boehm (MIA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ken Crawley (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ken Webster (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 1% · Giants 99%

Final margin
Giants by 16
Luck in points
5.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 6% · Giants 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · Dolphins · Giants

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