Week 15 2019 · December 15, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Browns at Cardinals, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?
The Cardinals beat the Browns 38–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Browns: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Browns were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:59 left): the Browns converted 3rd & 9, worth 8 points of win probability to the Browns.
Final
 Cleveland Browns | 24 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Cardinals about even · −14 Browns
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Browns win 1, Cardinals win 9.
- 1 CLE 28 ARI 21
- 2 CLE 17 ARI 19
- 3 CLE 16 ARI 20
- 4 CLE 23 ARI 30
- 5 CLE 7 ARI 16
- 6 CLE 17 ARI 28
- 7 CLE 21 ARI 35
- 8 CLE 6 ARI 24
- 9 CLE 10 ARI 33
- 10 CLE 7 ARI 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Browns
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns offenseEPA per play gained | +0.22 | +0.10 | better by 0.12 |
| Browns defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.44 | +0.10 | worse by 0.34 |
| Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.44 | +0.04 | better by 0.40 |
| Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.22 | +0.17 | worse by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Browns win 14% of them, Cardinals 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Browns by 17+ | 1.1% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 3.3% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 9.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 19.7% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 24.8% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 40.0% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Cardinals by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 8.3.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- A. Seibert, 44 yds made · 84% expected
- A. Seibert, 45 yds missed · 81% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 21 yds made · 99% expected
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:02 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 4:59 | The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% CLE | CLE: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 13:23 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +7% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 5:23 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +5% ARI | CLE: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 2:12 | The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +6% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 4:58 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% ARI | CLE: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 12:55 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% ARI | CLE: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 12:09 | A. Seibert missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 4 of 7 from 45+ before | +4% ARI | CLE: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Rodney Gunter (ARI DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jonathan Bullard (ARI DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Olivier Vernon (CLE DE), out · 0.9 pts
- Morgan Burnett (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Eric Murray (CLE FS), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Browns 3% · Cardinals 97%
- Final margin
- Cardinals by 14
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for the Cardinals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cardinals by 8.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Browns 14% · Cardinals 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · 
Browns · 
Cardinals
More from Week 15 2019
- Jets at Ravens BAL 42–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 21–13 · replay 78% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 23–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 24–21 · replay 70% for the winner
- Dolphins at Giants NYG 36–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- Patriots at Bengals NE 34–13 · replay 38% for the winner
- Eagles at Washington PHI 37–27 · replay 28% for the winner
- Seahawks at Panthers SEA 30–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Lions TB 38–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jaguars at Raiders JAX 20–16 · replay 25% for the winner
- Vikings at Chargers MIN 39–10 · replay 74% for the winner
- Falcons at 49ers ATL 29–22 · replay 67% for the winner
- Rams at Cowboys DAL 44–21 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bills at Steelers BUF 17–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Colts at Saints NO 34–7 · replay 92% for the winner