2019 season · final

Arizona Cardinals, 2019: game by game

The Cardinals went 5–10–1 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.7 wins. Luck cost them 1.2: the 10th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5–1.

Every game

How often the Cardinals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Lions	T 27–27	31%	+20
Week 2	@ Ravens	L 17–23	4%	−4
Week 3	vs Panthers	L 20–38	11%	−11
Week 4	vs Seahawks	L 10–27	57%	−57
Week 5	@ Bengals	W 26–23	77%	+23
Week 6	vs Falcons	W 34–33	29%	+71
Week 7	@ Giants	W 27–21	85%	+15
Week 8	@ Saints	L 9–31	5%	−5
Week 9	vs 49ers	L 25–28	42%	−42
Week 10	@ Buccaneers	L 27–30	45%	−45
Week 11	@ 49ers	L 26–36	8%	−8
Week 13	vs Rams	L 7–34	3%	−3
Week 14	vs Steelers	L 17–23	60%	−60
Week 15	vs Browns	W 38–24	85%	+15
Week 16	@ Seahawks	W 27–13	93%	+7
Week 17	@ Rams	L 24–31	38%	−38

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +20 vs DET

Wk 2 −4 @ BAL

Wk 3 −11 vs CAR

Wk 4 −57 vs SEA

Wk 5 +23 @ CIN

Wk 6 +71 vs ATL

Wk 7 +15 @ NYG

Wk 8 −5 @ NO

Wk 9 −42 vs SF

Wk 10 −45 @ TB

Wk 11 −8 @ SF

Wk 13 −3 vs LA

Wk 14 −60 vs PIT

Wk 15 +15 vs CLE

Wk 16 +7 @ SEA

Wk 17 −38 @ LA

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cardinals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Injuries	+0.16	+7.0
Rest	+0.03	+1.2
Kicks	+0.02	+0.8
Judgment calls	−0.09	+10.9
Fumble bounces	−0.13	−11.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.16	−8.9