luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Buccaneers, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Cardinals 30–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Buccaneers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.5 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:25 left): Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 30 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

November 10, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −5.5

Luck index +45 Buccaneers lucky · −45 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 5, Buccaneers win 5.

  1. 1 ARI 24 TB 3
  2. 2 ARI 38 TB 24
  3. 3 ARI 30 TB 20
  4. 4 ARI 30 TB 24
  5. 5 ARI 19 TB 17
  6. 6 ARI 27 TB 29
  7. 7 ARI 24 TB 30
  8. 8 ARI 28 TB 38
  9. 9 ARI 6 TB 21
  10. 10 ARI 16 TB 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 45% of them, Buccaneers 55%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+11.5%
Cardinals by 9–1613.8%
Cardinals by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation5.2%
Buccaneers by 1–820.2%
Buccaneers by 9–1615.7%
Buccaneers by 17+14.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 3.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 54 yds made · 63% expected
  • M. Gay, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Gay, 45 yds made · 80% expected
  • M. Gay, 41 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:47 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% ARI TB: Touchdown
2 Q3 13:14 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +12% TB ARI: Touchdown
3 Q4 8:39 The Cardinals converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +21% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 12 yardsJudgment calls +12% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:47 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +11% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:13 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +12% TB ARI: End of game
7 Q4 0:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Vernon Hargreaves III), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 621 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +12% ARI ARI: End of game
8 Q4 0:25 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +30% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Carl Nassib (TB DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Justin Murray (ARI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Damiere Byrd (ARI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tramaine Brock (ARI CB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 67% · Buccaneers 33%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
6.8 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 45% · Buccaneers 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Cardinals · Buccaneers

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