luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 11, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at 49ers, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the 49ers 27–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.2 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 8:12 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 16, worth 37 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final (OT)

Seattle Seahawks 27
San Francisco 49ers 24

November 11, 2019 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −6.5

Luck index +56 Seahawks lucky · −56 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 4, 49ers win 6.

  1. 1 SEA 44 SF 20
  2. 2 SEA 24 SF 9
  3. 3 SEA 28 SF 20
  4. 4 SEA 12 SF 9
  5. 5 SEA 50 SF 52
  6. 6 SEA 29 SF 34
  7. 7 SEA 13 SF 22
  8. 8 SEA 21 SF 33
  9. 9 SEA 21 SF 38
  10. 10 SEA 14 SF 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 44% of them, 49ers 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+11.3%
Seahawks by 9–1613.5%
Seahawks by 1–817.0%
Level after regulation3.0%
49ers by 1–822.4%
49ers by 9–1616.6%
49ers by 17+16.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 3.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Myers, 46 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 47 yds missed · 78% expected
  • J. Myers, 42 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:27 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jamar Taylor), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 223 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +15% SF SF: Field goal
2 Q2 2:57 The 49ers fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +23% SEA SF: Punt
3 Q4 3:12 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +15% SEA SEA: Field goal
4 QOT 9:31 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +19% SEA SEA: Turnover
5 QOT 8:12 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +37% SEA SEA: Turnover
6 QOT 4:52 The 49ers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +16% SF SF: Missed field goal
7 QOT 1:16 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +28% SEA SEA: Field goal
8 QOT 0:04 J. Myers made 42-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +15% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • George Kittle (SF TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (SF CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Skule (SF T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robbie Gould (SF K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Britt (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jaron Brown (SEA WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Will Dissly (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tedric Thompson (SEA FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 69% · 49ers 31%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
0.8 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 44% · 49ers 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Seahawks · 49ers

More from Week 10 2019