2019 season · final

San Francisco 49ers, 2019: game by game

The 49ers went 13–3 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.7 wins. Luck added 1.3: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.

Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 2.4.

Every game

How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Buccaneers	W 31–17	59%	+41
Week 2	@ Bengals	W 41–17	99%	+1
Week 3	vs Steelers	W 24–20	87%	+13
Week 5	vs Browns	W 31–3	96%	+4
Week 6	@ Rams	W 20–7	90%	+10
Week 7	@ Washington	W 9–0	84%	+16
Week 8	vs Panthers	W 51–13	98%	+2
Week 9	@ Cardinals	W 28–25	58%	+42
Week 10	vs Seahawks	L 24–27	56%	−56
Week 11	vs Cardinals	W 36–26	92%	+8
Week 12	vs Packers	W 37–8	93%	+7
Week 13	@ Ravens	L 17–20	31%	−31
Week 14	@ Saints	W 48–46	67%	+33
Week 15	vs Falcons	L 22–29	33%	−33
Week 16	vs Rams	W 34–31	57%	+43
Week 17	@ Seahawks	W 26–21	72%	+28
Divisional round	vs Vikings	W 27–10	96%	+4
NFC Championship	vs Packers	W 37–20	95%	+5
Super Bowl	@ Chiefs	L 20–31	48%	−48

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +41 @ TB

Wk 2 +1 @ CIN

Wk 3 +13 vs PIT

Wk 5 +4 vs CLE

Wk 6 +10 @ LA

Wk 7 +16 @ WAS

Wk 8 +2 vs CAR

Wk 9 +42 @ ARI

Wk 10 −56 vs SEA

Wk 11 +8 vs ARI

Wk 12 +7 vs GB

Wk 13 −31 @ BAL

Wk 14 +33 @ NO

Wk 15 −33 vs ATL

Wk 16 +43 vs LA

Wk 17 +28 @ SEA

Divisional +4 vs MIN

Conf. +5 vs GB

Super Bowl −48 @ KC

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
3rd & 4th downs	+17.7	+1.10
Judgment calls	+9.2	+0.58
Fumble bounces	+1.6	+0.10
Rest	−2.2	−0.14
Injuries	−5.0	−0.31
Kicks	−15.9	−0.99