2019 season · final
San Francisco 49ers, 2019: game by game
The 49ers went 13–3 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.8 wins. Luck added 1.2: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 2.4.
Every game
How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Buccaneers | W 31–17 | 58% | +42 |
| Week 2 | @ Bengals | W 41–17 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 3 | vs Steelers | W 24–20 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 5 | vs Browns | W 31–3 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 6 | @ Rams | W 20–7 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 7 | @ Washington | W 9–0 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 8 | vs Panthers | W 51–13 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 9 | @ Cardinals | W 28–25 | 58% | +42 |
| Week 10 | vs Seahawks | L 24–27 | 53% | −53 |
| Week 11 | vs Cardinals | W 36–26 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 12 | vs Packers | W 37–8 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 13 | @ Ravens | L 17–20 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 14 | @ Saints | W 48–46 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 15 | vs Falcons | L 22–29 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 16 | vs Rams | W 34–31 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 17 | @ Seahawks | W 26–21 | 71% | +29 |
| Divisional round | vs Vikings | W 27–10 | 96% | +4 |
| NFC Championship | vs Packers | W 37–20 | 95% | +5 |
| Super Bowl | vs Chiefs | L 20–31 | 49% | −49 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.51 | +18.3 |
| Judgment calls | +0.39 | +4.7 |
| Rest | −0.07 | −2.2 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.07 | +2.6 |
| Injuries | −0.08 | −3.7 |
| Kicks | −0.58 | −16.2 |