luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

49ers at Ravens, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the 49ers 20–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): J. Tucker made a 49-yard field goal, worth 23 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 17
Baltimore Ravens 20

December 1, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −5.5

Luck index +33 Ravens lucky · −33 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 3, Ravens win 7.

  1. 1 SF 23 BAL 7
  2. 2 SF 13 BAL 6
  3. 3 SF 13 BAL 10
  4. 4 SF 15 BAL 17
  5. 5 SF 24 BAL 28
  6. 6 SF 16 BAL 23
  7. 7 SF 19 BAL 28
  8. 8 SF 16 BAL 28
  9. 9 SF 14 BAL 30
  10. 10 SF 13 BAL 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 33% of them, Ravens 67%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+3.0%
49ers by 9–168.8%
49ers by 1–820.4%
Level after regulation1.8%
Ravens by 1–829.6%
Ravens by 9–1621.4%
Ravens by 17+14.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.5 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 3, without the luck 49ers by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Gould, 51 yds blocked · 60% expected
  • R. Gould, 32 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Tucker, 49 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: 49ers 6 for 54 yards, Ravens 3 for 23 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:31 Neutral Zone Infraction on the 49ers (Jullian Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 13:34 Roughing the Passer on the 49ers, 14 yards +3% BAL +1.6 pts
Q2 4:03 Roughing the Passer on the 49ers (Sheldon Day), 15 yards +3% BAL +1.8 pts
Q2 1:20 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the 49ers (Emmanuel Sanders), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% BAL +1.7 pts
Q2 0:26 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Jaylon Ferguson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.1 pts
Q3 5:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 13 yards +9% SF +2.3 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the 49ers (Kyle Juszczyk), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.7 pts
Q4 13:34 Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.5 pts
Q4 2:41 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +10% SF +1.0 pts

49ers penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:20 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the 49ers (Emmanuel Sanders), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 562 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +7% BAL BAL: Turnover
2 Q3 5:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 681 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +9% SF SF: Field goal
3 Q4 6:33 The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +10% BAL –
4 Q4 5:13 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +7% SF BAL: Field goal
5 Q4 4:39 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +7% BAL BAL: Field goal
6 Q4 2:41 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +10% SF –
7 Q4 2:00 The Ravens converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +7% BAL BAL: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 J. Tucker made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 5 of 5 from 45+ before +23% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Skura (BAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tony Jefferson (BAL SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Pernell McPhee (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chase McLaughlin (SF K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 70% · Ravens 30%

Final margin
Ravens by 3
Luck in points
5.5 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
49ers 33% · Ravens 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · 49ers · Ravens

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