luckadjusted

Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

49ers at Ravens, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the 49ers 20–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): J. Tucker made 49-yard field goal, worth 22 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 17
Baltimore Ravens 20

December 1, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −5.5

Luck index +31 Ravens lucky · −31 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 3, Ravens win 7.

  1. 1 SF 27 BAL 13
  2. 2 SF 24 BAL 17
  3. 3 SF 24 BAL 21
  4. 4 SF 16 BAL 17
  5. 5 SF 20 BAL 24
  6. 6 SF 7 BAL 13
  7. 7 SF 17 BAL 26
  8. 8 SF 10 BAL 23
  9. 9 SF 3 BAL 20
  10. 10 SF 10 BAL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 31% of them, Ravens 69%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+2.9%
49ers by 9–168.2%
49ers by 1–819.8%
Level after regulation1.7%
Ravens by 1–831.2%
Ravens by 9–1622.2%
Ravens by 17+13.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 3.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Gould, 51 yds blocked · 61% expected
  • R. Gould, 32 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Tucker, 49 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:40 The 49ers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +10% SF SF: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:00 The 49ers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +15% SF SF: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:37 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe 49ers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% BAL SF: Punt
4 Q3 12:13 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% SF BAL: Punt
5 Q4 6:33 The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +10% BAL –
6 Q4 4:39 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +10% BAL BAL: Field goal
7 Q4 2:41 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +10% SF –
8 Q4 0:03 J. Tucker made 49-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 5 of 5 from 45+ before +22% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Skura (BAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tony Jefferson (BAL SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Pernell McPhee (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chase McLaughlin (SF K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 75% · Ravens 25%

Final margin
Ravens by 3
Luck in points
6.7 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 3.7
Replay with same day's form
49ers 31% · Ravens 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · 49ers · Ravens

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