luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2019 · December 2, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Seahawks, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Vikings 37–30, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:18 left): Return touchdown by the Vikings, worth 22 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 30
Seattle Seahawks 37

December 2, 2019 · CenturyLink Field · Closing line: Seahawks −2.5

Luck index +41 Seahawks lucky · −41 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 4, Seahawks win 6.

  1. 1 MIN 34 SEA 13
  2. 2 MIN 34 SEA 23
  3. 3 MIN 35 SEA 29
  4. 4 MIN 29 SEA 27
  5. 5 MIN 27 SEA 29
  6. 6 MIN 21 SEA 26
  7. 7 MIN 36 SEA 45
  8. 8 MIN 10 SEA 23
  9. 9 MIN 10 SEA 28
  10. 10 MIN 9 SEA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 41% of them, Seahawks 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+8.8%
Vikings by 9–1612.4%
Vikings by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation3.3%
Seahawks by 1–824.6%
Seahawks by 9–1616.0%
Seahawks by 17+16.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 7, without the luck Seahawks by 6.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Bailey, 47 yds made · 78% expected
  • J. Myers, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Myers, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 3 for 30 yards, Seahawks 1 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:20 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +2% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 11:05 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Xavier Rhodes), 15 yards +7% SEA +1.5 pts
Q3 4:25 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.6 pts
Q4 9:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 30 yards +10% MIN +2.7 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:51 The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% MIN MIN: Punt
2 Q2 5:18 Return touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +22% MIN MIN: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 0:22 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% MIN MIN: Field goal
4 Q3 11:05 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Xavier Rhodes), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 644 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +7% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:56 The Vikings fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% SEA MIN: Punt
6 Q4 9:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 30 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 728 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:36 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +6% SEA MIN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:31 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +7% SEA MIN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Will Dissly (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Britt (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tedric Thompson (SEA FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Adam Thielen (MIN WR), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 19% · Seahawks 81%

Final margin
Seahawks by 7
Luck in points
0.2 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 41% · Seahawks 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · Vikings · Seahawks

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