luckadjusted

Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Steelers, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Browns 20–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:46 left): the Browns converted 3rd & 5, worth 9 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 13
Pittsburgh Steelers 20

December 1, 2019 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Browns −1

Luck index +23 Steelers about even · −23 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 2, Steelers win 8.

  1. 1 CLE 35 PIT 21
  2. 2 CLE 24 PIT 20
  3. 3 CLE 17 PIT 19
  4. 4 CLE 16 PIT 20
  5. 5 CLE 17 PIT 24
  6. 6 CLE 14 PIT 24
  7. 7 CLE 9 PIT 23
  8. 8 CLE 3 PIT 20
  9. 9 CLE 10 PIT 30
  10. 10 CLE 23 PIT 50

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 23% of them, Steelers 77%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+2.3%
Browns by 9–166.3%
Browns by 1–812.1%
Level after regulation2.6%
Steelers by 1–826.6%
Steelers by 9–1620.5%
Steelers by 17+29.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 3.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Boswell, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Boswell, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Seibert, 34 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:17 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% CLE CLE: Field goal
2 Q1 9:45 The Browns converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +8% CLE CLE: Field goal
3 Q2 7:46 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q2 6:53 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q3 10:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 462 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q3 6:08 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +7% CLE CLE: Turnover
7 Q3 5:25 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% PIT PIT: Field goal
8 Q4 6:28 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% PIT CLE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • James Conner (PIT RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Robinson (CLE T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Damarious Randall (CLE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Morgan Burnett (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Murray (CLE FS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 25% · Steelers 75%

Final margin
Steelers by 7
Luck in points
4.0 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Browns 23% · Steelers 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · Browns · Steelers

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