luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Dolphins, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Eagles 37–31, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Dolphins win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:28 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 20 yards, worth 10 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 31
Miami Dolphins 37

December 1, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −10.5

Luck index +47 Dolphins lucky · −47 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 5, Dolphins win 5.

  1. 1 PHI 41 MIA 17
  2. 2 PHI 25 MIA 10
  3. 3 PHI 34 MIA 24
  4. 4 PHI 23 MIA 17
  5. 5 PHI 31 MIA 29
  6. 6 PHI 21 MIA 23
  7. 7 PHI 14 MIA 20
  8. 8 PHI 22 MIA 31
  9. 9 PHI 13 MIA 27
  10. 10 PHI 16 MIA 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 47% of them, Dolphins 53%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+10.9%
Eagles by 9–1613.1%
Eagles by 1–821.7%
Level after regulation5.1%
Dolphins by 1–822.4%
Dolphins by 9–1614.6%
Dolphins by 17+12.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Dolphins by 6, without the luck Dolphins by 7.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 48 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Elliott, 43 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Elliott, 49 yds missed · 68% expected
  • J. Sanders, 51 yds made · 61% expected
  • J. Elliott, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 10 for 91 yards, Dolphins 7 for 59 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:45 False Start on the Dolphins (Vince Biegel), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q1 10:10 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Timmy Jernigan), 15 yards +2% MIA +0.9 pts
Q1 7:54 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards 0% MIA +0.9 pts
Q1 7:20 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Mack Hollins), 10 yards +2% MIA +0.9 pts
Q2 11:30 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.5 pts
Q2 7:09 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 6:49 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.7 pts
Q2 6:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Jalen Mills), 9 yards +7% MIA +2.6 pts
Q2 0:20 False Start on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.4 pts
Q2 0:06 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Jerome Baker), 5 yards +3% PHI +1.1 pts
Q3 4:34 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Timmy Jernigan), 15 yards +2% MIA +0.9 pts
Q3 0:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 20 yards +10% PHI +2.4 pts
Q4 14:52 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 4 yards +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q4 12:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Jalen Mills), 12 yards +7% MIA +1.6 pts
Q4 9:36 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +4% PHI +0.9 pts
Q4 8:55 Defensive Offside on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.1 pts
Q4 3:58 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Mike Gesicki), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% PHI +3.2 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:14 The Dolphins converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q2 9:41 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:44 The Dolphins converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +9% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:13 The Eagles converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:45 The Dolphins missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +9% PHI MIA: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:10 The Dolphins’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% PHI MIA: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 20 yardsJudgment calls +10% PHI PHI: Punt
8 Q4 3:58 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Mike Gesicki), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 435 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +10% PHI PHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Reshad Jones (MIA FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bobby McCain (MIA FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ken Crawley (MIA CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Howard (PHI RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Hassan Ridgeway (PHI DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 16% · Dolphins 84%

Final margin
Dolphins by 6
Luck in points
1.9 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 47% · Dolphins 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · Eagles · Dolphins

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