luckadjusted

Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Dolphins, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Eagles 37–31, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Dolphins win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:14 left): the Dolphins converted 4th & 4, worth 14 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 31
Miami Dolphins 37

December 1, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −10.5

Luck index +45 Dolphins lucky · −45 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 4, Dolphins win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 20 MIA 0
  2. 2 PHI 36 MIA 24
  3. 3 PHI 31 MIA 24
  4. 4 PHI 24 MIA 21
  5. 5 PHI 24 MIA 26
  6. 6 PHI 21 MIA 27
  7. 7 PHI 22 MIA 31
  8. 8 PHI 7 MIA 20
  9. 9 PHI 14 MIA 31
  10. 10 PHI 7 MIA 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 45% of them, Dolphins 55%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+8.9%
Eagles by 9–1614.3%
Eagles by 1–819.0%
Level after regulation2.8%
Dolphins by 1–825.5%
Dolphins by 9–1615.3%
Dolphins by 17+14.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 8.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 48 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Elliott, 43 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Elliott, 49 yds missed · 70% expected
  • J. Sanders, 51 yds made · 62% expected
  • J. Elliott, 37 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:00 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:14 The Dolphins converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +14% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:41 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:44 The Dolphins converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +11% MIA MIA: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:13 The Eagles converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +14% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q3 8:45 The Dolphins missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +9% PHI MIA: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 20 yardsJudgment calls +10% PHI PHI: Punt
8 Q4 3:58 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Mike Gesicki), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 435 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +12% PHI PHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Reshad Jones (MIA FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bobby McCain (MIA FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ken Crawley (MIA CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Howard (PHI RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Hassan Ridgeway (PHI DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 23% · Dolphins 77%

Final margin
Dolphins by 6
Luck in points
2.7 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 45% · Dolphins 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · Eagles · Dolphins

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