luckadjusted

Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Panthers, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Panthers 29–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.4 points to the Panthers.

An off day for the Panthers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Washington they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Panthers were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:44 left): Washington fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 10 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Redskins 29
Carolina Panthers 21

December 1, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −10.5

Luck index +31 Washington lucky · −31 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 7, Panthers win 3.

  1. 1 WAS 41 CAR 13
  2. 2 WAS 24 CAR 3
  3. 3 WAS 27 CAR 10
  4. 4 WAS 20 CAR 6
  5. 5 WAS 29 CAR 20
  6. 6 WAS 20 CAR 14
  7. 7 WAS 16 CAR 14
  8. 8 WAS 16 CAR 19
  9. 9 WAS 23 CAR 30
  10. 10 WAS 22 CAR 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Panthers

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Washington they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%.

41 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Washington offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.00 better by 0.07
Washington defenseEPA per play allowed −0.09 +0.15 better by 0.24
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained −0.09 +0.14 worse by 0.23
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.15 better by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 69% of them, Panthers 31%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+26.0%
Washington by 9–1619.7%
Washington by 1–822.4%
Level after regulation3.2%
Panthers by 1–815.4%
Panthers by 9–168.9%
Panthers by 17+4.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Washington by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Washington by 10.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 42 yds made · 80% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 49 yds blocked · 67% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 36 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:10 D. Hopkins had a 49-yard field goal blockedKicks · 67% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +8% CAR WAS: Field goal
2 Q3 9:25 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% CAR WAS: Field goal
3 Q3 5:59 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% CAR CAR: Punt
4 Q3 4:34 Disqualification on Washington (Ryan Anderson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 486 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +6% CAR CAR: Punt
5 Q3 2:44 Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% WAS WAS: Punt
6 Q4 1:51 Onside kick recovered by the PanthersSpecial teams +7% CAR CAR: Turnover
7 Q4 0:31 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% WAS CAR: Turnover
8 Q4 0:27 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Greg Little (CAR T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dontari Poe (CAR NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Van Roten (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Kerrigan (WAS LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Paul Richardson (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 96% · Panthers 4%

Final margin
Washington by 8
Luck in points
2.4 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 10.4
Replay with same day's form
Washington 69% · Panthers 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · Washington · Panthers

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