2019 season · final

Washington Redskins, 2019: game by game

Washington went 3–13 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.5 wins. Luck cost them 1.5: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.

Every game

How often Washington win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Eagles	L 27–32	18%	−18
Week 2	vs Cowboys	L 21–31	2%	−2
Week 3	vs Bears	L 15–31	46%	−46
Week 4	@ Giants	L 3–24	27%	−27
Week 5	vs Patriots	L 7–33	4%	−4
Week 6	@ Dolphins	W 17–16	88%	+12
Week 7	vs 49ers	L 0–9	17%	−17
Week 8	@ Vikings	L 9–19	20%	−20
Week 9	@ Bills	L 9–24	35%	−35
Week 11	vs Jets	L 17–34	15%	−15
Week 12	vs Lions	W 19–16	11%	+89
Week 13	@ Panthers	W 29–21	70%	+30
Week 14	@ Packers	L 15–20	10%	−10
Week 15	vs Eagles	L 27–37	70%	−70
Week 16	vs Giants	L 35–41	17%	−17
Week 17	@ Cowboys	L 16–47	4%	−4

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −18 @ PHI

Wk 2 −2 vs DAL

Wk 3 −46 vs CHI

Wk 4 −27 @ NYG

Wk 5 −4 vs NE

Wk 6 +12 @ MIA

Wk 7 −17 vs SF

Wk 8 −20 @ MIN

Wk 9 −35 @ BUF

Wk 11 −15 vs NYJ

Wk 12 +89 vs DET

Wk 13 +30 @ CAR

Wk 14 −10 @ GB

Wk 15 −70 vs PHI

Wk 16 −17 vs NYG

Wk 17 −4 @ DAL

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Washington’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.16	+3.5
Injuries	−0.04	−4.4
Judgment calls	−0.13	+1.5
Fumble bounces	−0.54	−1.9
3rd & 4th downs	−0.69	−27.6