luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Washington, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat Washington 34–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 9 of 10. Washington had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Washington.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:55 left): Offensive Holding on Washington, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 17 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 34
Washington Redskins 17

November 17, 2019 · FedExField · Closing line: Washington −1

Luck index +15 Jets about even · −15 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 9, Washington wins 1.

  1. 1 NYJ 33 WAS 3
  2. 2 NYJ 28 WAS 6
  3. 3 NYJ 30 WAS 10
  4. 4 NYJ 29 WAS 13
  5. 5 NYJ 33 WAS 20
  6. 6 NYJ 41 WAS 31
  7. 7 NYJ 37 WAS 29
  8. 8 NYJ 19 WAS 13
  9. 9 NYJ 12 WAS 9
  10. 10 NYJ 13 WAS 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 85% of them, Washington 15%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+46.1%
Jets by 9–1620.9%
Jets by 1–817.3%
Level after regulation2.0%
Washington by 1–88.8%
Washington by 9–163.8%
Washington by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.5 points to Washington: the final margin was Jets by 17, without the luck Jets by 25.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 29 yds missed · 96% expected
  • S. Ficken, 49 yds missed · 70% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 6 for 55 yards, Washington 10 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:22 Illegal Use of Hands on Washington (Montez Sweat), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% WAS +0.4 pts
Q2 14:47 Roughing the Kicker on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 6 yards +7% NYJ +2.3 pts
Q2 14:01 Offensive Holding on Washington (Josh Harvey-Clemons), 10 yards +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 13:55 Offensive Holding on Washington, 5 yards, wiping out the play +17% NYJ +7.5 pts
Q2 11:05 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% WAS +2.1 pts
Q2 3:09 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 9 yards, wiping out the play +9% WAS +3.4 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q2 0:36 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q2 0:25 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.1 pts
Q3 11:31 Roughing the Kicker on the Jets, 15 yards +4% WAS +3.9 pts
Q3 0:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q4 13:11 Offensive Holding on Washington (Josh Harvey-Clemons), 10 yards 0% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q4 9:17 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards 0% WAS +1.8 pts
Q4 3:06 False Start on Washington (Kelvin Harmon), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q4 1:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Maurice Canady), 1 yard 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q4 1:11 Illegal Touch Kick on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 0 yards 0% NYJ 0.0 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:38 Washington fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% WAS WAS: Punt
2 Q2 14:47 Roughing the Kicker on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 338 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +7% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:55 Offensive Holding on Washington, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
4 Q2 9:09 D. Hopkins made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +4% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
5 Q2 9:05 The Jets fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% WAS NYJ: Punt
6 Q2 6:41 D. Hopkins missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +7% NYJ WAS: Punt
7 Q2 5:57 The Jets converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% NYJ NYJ: Punt
8 Q2 3:09 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% WAS WAS: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Vernon Davis (WAS TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Paul Richardson (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Thompson (WAS RB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Ryan Kalil (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Trumaine Johnson (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Darryl Roberts (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nate Hairston (NYJ CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brian Winters (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Cashman (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 100% · Washington 0%

Final margin
Jets by 17
Luck in points
8.5 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 25.5
Replay with same day's form
Jets 85% · Washington 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Jets · Washington

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