luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Lions, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Lions 35–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:46 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 9, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 35
Detroit Lions 27

November 17, 2019 · Ford Field · Closing line: Cowboys −7.5

Luck index +7 Cowboys about even · −7 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Lions win 1.

  1. 1 DAL 45 DET 7
  2. 2 DAL 44 DET 16
  3. 3 DAL 51 DET 28
  4. 4 DAL 37 DET 17
  5. 5 DAL 32 DET 16
  6. 6 DAL 36 DET 24
  7. 7 DAL 37 DET 28
  8. 8 DAL 21 DET 16
  9. 9 DAL 32 DET 30
  10. 10 DAL 16 DET 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 93% of them, Lions 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+56.7%
Cowboys by 9–1621.2%
Cowboys by 1–815.0%
Level after regulation0.6%
Lions by 1–84.5%
Lions by 9–161.5%
Lions by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 5.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Maher, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:04 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +8% DET DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 0:11 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:19 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:46 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +16% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:26 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q3 10:35 The Lions converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% DET DET: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:46 The Lions converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +6% DET DET: Punt
8 Q4 14:14 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% DET DET: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matthew Stafford (DET QB), out, replaced by j.driskel · 6.3 pts
  • Romeo Okwara (DET DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kerryon Johnson (DET RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Connor Williams (DAL G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jeff Heath (DAL SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Devin Smith (DAL WR), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 55% · Lions 45%

Final margin
Cowboys by 8
Luck in points
13.1 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 5.1
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 93% · Lions 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Cowboys · Lions

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