Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Cowboys at Lions, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Lions 35–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:46 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 9, worth 11 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 35 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Cowboys about even · −7 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Lions win 1.
- 1 DAL 49 DET 13
- 2 DAL 46 DET 20
- 3 DAL 37 DET 16
- 4 DAL 38 DET 20
- 5 DAL 28 DET 13
- 6 DAL 30 DET 17
- 7 DAL 25 DET 16
- 8 DAL 37 DET 31
- 9 DAL 23 DET 20
- 10 DAL 19 DET 24
Your call
Did the Cowboys earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 93% of them, Lions 7%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 55.3% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 19.6% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 16.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 4.9% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Lions by 17+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Maher, 30 yds made · 96% expected
- B. Maher, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 6 for 45 yards, Lions 11 for 89 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:37 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Lions, 10 yards | +2% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 10:54 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DAL +0.8 pts |
| Q1 5:45 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:43 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Josh Jones), 10 yards | +3% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:30 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.2 pts |
| Q2 4:37 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +2% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:30 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 7 yards | +5% DAL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:33 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Lions (Will Harris), 15 yards | +4% DAL +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Lions (A'Shawn Robinson), 15 yards | +4% DAL +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:26 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 7 yards, wiping out the play | +10% DAL +2.8 pts |
| Q3 14:26 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:30 | False Start on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:14 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +10% DET +2.8 pts |
| Q4 9:11 | Illegal Contact on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% DAL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 3:13 | Face Mask on the Cowboys (Darian Thompson), 15 yards | +4% DET +1.8 pts |
| Q4 3:01 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Lions, 5 yards | 0% DAL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:07 | Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.2 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:04 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +6% DET | DAL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 0:11 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +5% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 14:19 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +5% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 5:46 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +11% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:26 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 10:35 | The Lions converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +8% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 1:46 | The Lions converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +6% DET | DET: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 14:14 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +10% DET | DET: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Matthew Stafford (DET QB), out, replaced by j.driskel · 6.3 pts
- Romeo Okwara (DET DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Da'Shawn Hand (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts
- Kerryon Johnson (DET RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Connor Williams (DAL G), out · 0.4 pts
- Jeff Heath (DAL SS), out · 0.4 pts
- Devin Smith (DAL WR), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 89% · Lions 11%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 8
- Luck in points
- 7.6 for the Cowboys
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 93% · Lions 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · 
Cowboys · 
Lions
More from Week 11 2019
- Steelers at Browns CLE 21–7 · replay 53% for the winner
- Falcons at Panthers ATL 29–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 37–20 · replay 96% for the winner
- Broncos at Vikings MIN 27–23 · replay 65% for the winner
- Texans at Ravens BAL 41–7 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 33–13 · replay 92% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers NO 34–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Jets at Washington NYJ 34–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers SF 36–26 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bengals at Raiders OAK 17–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Patriots at Eagles NE 17–10 · replay 43% for the winner
- Bears at Rams LA 17–7 · replay 81% for the winner
- Chiefs vs Chargers KC 24–17 · replay 36% for the winner