luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 18, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chiefs vs Chargers, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Chargers 24–17, but the Chargers played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.3 points to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:01 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 17 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 24
Los Angeles Chargers 17

November 18, 2019 · Azteca Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −5.5

Luck index +64 Chiefs very lucky · −64 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 4, Chargers win 6.

  1. 1 KC 41 LAC 20
  2. 2 KC 23 LAC 10
  3. 3 KC 24 LAC 17
  4. 4 KC 14 LAC 12
  5. 5 KC 23 LAC 25
  6. 6 KC 20 LAC 26
  7. 7 KC 24 LAC 33
  8. 8 KC 20 LAC 33
  9. 9 KC 14 LAC 32
  10. 10 KC 6 LAC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 36% of them, Chargers 64%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+7.0%
Chiefs by 9–1610.9%
Chiefs by 1–817.3%
Level after regulation2.2%
Chargers by 1–824.3%
Chargers by 9–1618.2%
Chargers by 17+20.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 7.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Badgley, 40 yds missed · 87% expected
  • M. Badgley, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • H. Butker, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • M. Badgley, 49 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:29 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Damien Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 297 snaps before, position avg 1 per 654 +7% LAC LAC: Missed field goal
2 Q1 3:14 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% KC KC: Turnover
3 Q2 9:01 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +17% KC LAC: Field goal
4 Q2 0:01 M. Badgley made 49-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +11% LAC LAC: Punt
5 Q3 14:02 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers (Melvin Ingram), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 356 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +13% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:34 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q3 10:13 The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% KC KC: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:52 The Chargers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Chargers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +11% LAC LAC: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sam Tevi (LAC T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Russell Okung (LAC T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Mike Pouncey (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Dontrelle Inman (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Travis Benjamin (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sean Culkin (LAC TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kendall Fuller (KC CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Emmanuel Ogbah (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Alex Okafor (KC DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Martinas Rankin (KC T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 85% · Chargers 15%

Final margin
Chiefs by 7
Luck in points
0.5 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 7.5
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 36% · Chargers 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Chiefs · Chargers

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