luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Raiders, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Bengals 17–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:51 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 19, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 10
Oakland Raiders 17

November 17, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum · Closing line: Raiders −13

Luck index +7 Raiders about even · −7 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 30 OAK 23
  2. 2 CIN 13 OAK 16
  3. 3 CIN 37 OAK 43
  4. 4 CIN 24 OAK 34
  5. 5 CIN 21 OAK 34
  6. 6 CIN 3 OAK 20
  7. 7 CIN 10 OAK 29
  8. 8 CIN 10 OAK 33
  9. 9 CIN 16 OAK 43
  10. 10 CIN 0 OAK 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 7% of them, Raiders 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.4%
Bengals by 9–161.5%
Bengals by 1–84.2%
Level after regulation0.8%
Raiders by 1–815.6%
Raiders by 9–1618.6%
Raiders by 17+59.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.5 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 7, without the luck Raiders by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 53 yds missed · 61% expected
  • R. Bullock, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • D. Carlson, 20 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 4 for 40 yards, Raiders 7 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:57 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Dion Jordan), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +1.0 pts
Q1 3:14 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 4 yards +3% CIN +1.1 pts
Q2 14:04 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders, 9 yards 0% CIN +0.8 pts
Q2 8:41 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 6:50 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Jordan Evans), 10 yards +3% OAK +0.9 pts
Q2 4:40 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Sam Hubbard), 15 yards +6% OAK +1.8 pts
Q2 1:05 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +2% OAK +1.0 pts
Q2 0:30 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% OAK +1.0 pts
Q2 0:13 Encroachment on the Raiders (Maurice Hurst Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.6 pts
Q3 2:40 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CIN +2.6 pts
Q4 10:41 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.9 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:57 The Bengals fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% OAK CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:41 The Raiders fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CIN OAK: Punt
3 Q1 5:21 The Bengals converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:40 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Sam Hubbard), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 560 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +6% OAK OAK: Touchdown
5 Q3 6:07 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +7% CIN OAK: Punt
6 Q3 2:40 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% CIN CIN: Punt
7 Q4 6:51 The Bengals converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +10% CIN CIN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 5:11 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% OAK CIN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Devey (OAK C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Karl Joseph (OAK SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lamarcus Joyner (OAK FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dre Kirkpatrick (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • John Ross (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Redmond (CIN G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 34% · Raiders 66%

Final margin
Raiders by 7
Luck in points
5.5 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 7% · Raiders 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Bengals · Raiders

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