luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Raiders, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Bengals 17–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:57 left): the Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 19 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 10
Oakland Raiders 17

November 17, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum · Closing line: Raiders −13

Luck index +6 Raiders about even · −6 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 22 OAK 16
  2. 2 CIN 26 OAK 29
  3. 3 CIN 16 OAK 22
  4. 4 CIN 30 OAK 38
  5. 5 CIN 16 OAK 27
  6. 6 CIN 17 OAK 31
  7. 7 CIN 13 OAK 31
  8. 8 CIN 13 OAK 35
  9. 9 CIN 21 OAK 47
  10. 10 CIN 17 OAK 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 6% of them, Raiders 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.4%
Bengals by 9–161.2%
Bengals by 1–84.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Raiders by 1–814.3%
Raiders by 9–1619.5%
Raiders by 17+59.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 1.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 53 yds missed · 61% expected
  • R. Bullock, 40 yds made · 85% expected
  • D. Carlson, 20 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:57 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Bengals fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% OAK CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:21 The Bengals converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:15 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% OAK OAK: Touchdown
4 Q3 9:29 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% CIN OAK: Punt
5 Q3 6:07 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +8% CIN OAK: Punt
6 Q3 2:40 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% CIN CIN: Punt
7 Q4 14:23 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% OAK CIN: Punt
8 Q4 6:51 The Bengals converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +9% CIN CIN: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Devey (OAK C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Karl Joseph (OAK SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lamarcus Joyner (OAK FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dre Kirkpatrick (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • John Ross (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Redmond (CIN G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 34% · Raiders 66%

Final margin
Raiders by 7
Luck in points
5.2 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 6% · Raiders 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Bengals · Raiders

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