luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Rams, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Bears 17–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:26 left): Illegal Formation on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 7
Los Angeles Rams 17

November 17, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Closing line: Rams −5

Luck index +19 Rams about even · −19 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 2, Rams win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 19 LA 7
  2. 2 CHI 17 LA 14
  3. 3 CHI 21 LA 23
  4. 4 CHI 11 LA 16
  5. 5 CHI 12 LA 20
  6. 6 CHI 18 LA 29
  7. 7 CHI 13 LA 27
  8. 8 CHI 7 LA 24
  9. 9 CHI 13 LA 34
  10. 10 CHI 0 LA 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 19% of them, Rams 81%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+1.3%
Bears by 9–164.9%
Bears by 1–811.3%
Level after regulation1.3%
Rams by 1–825.7%
Rams by 9–1621.8%
Rams by 17+33.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 10, without the luck Rams by 5.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 48 yds missed · 78% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 47 yds missed · 79% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 2 for 25 yards, Rams 6 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:53 Defensive Offside on the Rams (Malcolm Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% CHI +1.7 pts
Q2 4:17 False Start on the Rams (Cooper Kupp), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +1.0 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Offside on the Rams (Dante Fowler), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% LA +0.2 pts
Q3 2:55 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bears (Cordarrelle Patterson), 15 yards +4% LA +1.3 pts
Q4 13:22 Defensive Holding on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% CHI +2.3 pts
Q4 11:23 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% CHI +2.6 pts
Q4 6:26 Illegal Formation on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +19% CHI +5.0 pts
Q4 3:31 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +1% LA +0.9 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:51 The Bears converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% CHI CHI: Missed field goal
2 Q1 11:59 E. Pineiro missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 3 of 3 from 45+ before +8% LA CHI: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 1:02 E. Pineiro missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before +9% LA CHI: Punt
4 Q4 13:22 Defensive Holding on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% CHI CHI: Punt
5 Q4 11:23 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% CHI CHI: Punt
6 Q4 10:22 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedThe Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LA LA: Punt
7 Q4 6:26 Illegal Formation on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +19% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 5:06 The Rams converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% LA LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandin Cooks (LA WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Robert Woods (LA WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • John Johnson (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jamil Demby (LA G), out · 0.1 pts
  • Kyle Long (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Danny Trevathan (CHI LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Trey Burton (CHI TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 25% · Rams 75%

Final margin
Rams by 10
Luck in points
4.5 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 5.5
Replay with same day's form
Bears 19% · Rams 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Bears · Rams

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