luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Rams, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Bears 17–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 2.7 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Rams were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:26 left): Illegal Formation on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 28 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 7
Los Angeles Rams 17

November 17, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Closing line: Rams −5

Luck index +20 Rams about even · −20 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 2, Rams win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 22 LA 10
  2. 2 CHI 6 LA 3
  3. 3 CHI 14 LA 17
  4. 4 CHI 14 LA 20
  5. 5 CHI 16 LA 24
  6. 6 CHI 19 LA 30
  7. 7 CHI 6 LA 20
  8. 8 CHI 13 LA 30
  9. 9 CHI 7 LA 27
  10. 10 CHI 12 LA 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 20% of them, Rams 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+1.8%
Bears by 9–166.1%
Bears by 1–811.4%
Level after regulation1.5%
Rams by 1–826.7%
Rams by 9–1620.6%
Rams by 17+31.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 7.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 48 yds missed · 78% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 47 yds missed · 79% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:59 E. Pineiro missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 3 of 3 from 45+ before +8% LA CHI: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 1:02 E. Pineiro missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before +9% LA CHI: Punt
3 Q2 3:51 The Rams converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:22 Defensive Holding on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% CHI CHI: Punt
5 Q4 11:23 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% CHI CHI: Punt
6 Q4 10:22 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LA LA: Punt
7 Q4 6:26 Illegal Formation on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +28% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 5:06 The Rams converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandin Cooks (LA WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Robert Woods (LA WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • John Johnson (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jamil Demby (LA G), out · 0.1 pts
  • Kyle Long (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Danny Trevathan (CHI LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Trey Burton (CHI TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 21% · Rams 79%

Final margin
Rams by 10
Luck in points
2.6 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Bears 20% · Rams 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Bears · Rams

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