luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Dolphins, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Dolphins 37–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:23 left): Return touchdown by the Dolphins, worth 9 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Buffalo Bills 37
Miami Dolphins 20

November 17, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Bills −7

Luck index +4 Bills about even · −4 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 10, Dolphins win 0.

  1. 1 BUF 41 MIA 6
  2. 2 BUF 36 MIA 9
  3. 3 BUF 38 MIA 14
  4. 4 BUF 34 MIA 13
  5. 5 BUF 24 MIA 6
  6. 6 BUF 35 MIA 19
  7. 7 BUF 32 MIA 19
  8. 8 BUF 26 MIA 16
  9. 9 BUF 37 MIA 30
  10. 10 BUF 23 MIA 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 96% of them, Dolphins 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+70.2%
Bills by 9–1617.0%
Bills by 1–88.3%
Level after regulation0.7%
Dolphins by 1–83.0%
Dolphins by 9–160.8%
Dolphins by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 6.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Hauschka, 51 yds made · 63% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 21 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:09 S. Hauschka made 51-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 3 of 7 from 45+ before +5% BUF BUF: Field goal
2 Q1 6:50 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% BUF BUF: Field goal
3 Q1 4:39 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% MIA BUF: Field goal
4 Q1 3:07 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +8% MIA MIA: Punt
5 Q2 7:46 S. Hauschka made 21-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +6% MIA BUF: Punt
6 Q2 5:04 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:23 Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +9% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q3 13:35 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Taco Charlton (MIA DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Shaq Calhoun (MIA G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Danny Isidora (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Raekwon McMillan (MIA LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Duke Williams (BUF WR), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 92% · Dolphins 8%

Final margin
Bills by 17
Luck in points
10.6 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Bills 96% · Dolphins 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Bills · Dolphins

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