luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Eagles, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Eagles 17–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:55 left): the Patriots converted 3rd & 11, worth 15 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 17
Philadelphia Eagles 10

November 17, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Patriots −4.5

Luck index +50 Patriots lucky · −50 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 5, Eagles win 5.

  1. 1 NE 23 PHI 2
  2. 2 NE 22 PHI 7
  3. 3 NE 20 PHI 10
  4. 4 NE 12 PHI 6
  5. 5 NE 33 PHI 30
  6. 6 NE 41 PHI 44
  7. 7 NE 20 PHI 27
  8. 8 NE 20 PHI 31
  9. 9 NE 10 PHI 26
  10. 10 NE 14 PHI 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 50% of them, Eagles 50%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+11.3%
Patriots by 9–1615.4%
Patriots by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation5.2%
Eagles by 1–820.4%
Eagles by 9–1614.8%
Eagles by 17+12.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 11.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 42 yds made · 82% expected
  • N. Folk, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • N. Folk, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • N. Folk, 39 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Jason McCourty), 49 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 455 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +10% PHI PHI: Field goal
2 Q2 10:37 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% NE NE: Field goal
3 Q2 2:34 The Eagles fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NE PHI: Punt
4 Q3 10:55 The Patriots converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +15% NE NE: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:32 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% PHI NE: Punt
6 Q4 1:52 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:05 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% NE PHI: End of game
8 Q4 0:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Terrence Brooks), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 302 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 +14% PHI PHI: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alshon Jeffery (PHI WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Nigel Bradham (PHI LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Hassan Ridgeway (PHI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Stephen Gostkowski (NE K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Patrick Chung (NE SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Izzo (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 95% · Eagles 5%

Final margin
Patriots by 7
Luck in points
4.8 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 11.8
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 50% · Eagles 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Patriots · Eagles

More from Week 11 2019