All-time · since 2019
The luckiest wins since 2019
The luckiest win since 2019: the Bears beat the Packers 24–22 (2024, Week 18) in a game they win 1% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played. Here are the 50 biggest heists.
Ranked by how often the winner wins the replay with the same day’s form: the lower, the more the result owed to luck. Unluckiest losses ranks the bad beats instead, and biggest upsets ranks by the betting line.
| # | Game | When | Winner wins the replay | Before kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bears 24, Packers 22 | 2024 Week 18 · Jan 5, 2025 | 1% | 23% |
| 2 | Jets 31, Browns 30 | 2022 Week 2 · Sep 18, 2022 | 1% | 32% |
| 3 | Browns 29, Ravens 24 | 2024 Week 8 · Oct 27, 2024 | 1% | 29% |
| 4 | Browns 20, Bengals 18 | 2025 Week 18 · Jan 4, 2026 | 2% | 24% |
| 5 | Seahawks 30, 49ers 23 | 2021 Week 13 · Dec 5, 2021 | 2% | 41% |
| 6 | Colts 12, Broncos 9 | 2022 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2022 | 3% | 40% |
| 7 | Jets 24, Cowboys 22 | 2019 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2019 | 3% | 30% |
| 8 | Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16 | 2026 Week 5 · Oct 8, 2026 | 4% | 24% |
| 9 | Titans 28, Dolphins 27 | 2023 Week 14 · Dec 11, 2023 | 4% | 15% |
| 10 | Steelers 28, Commanders 27 | 2024 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2024 | 5% | 46% |
| 11 | Packers 34, Cowboys 24 | 2019 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2019 | 5% | 40% |
| 12 | Dolphins 28, Rams 17 | 2020 Week 8 · Nov 1, 2020 | 5% | 40% |
| 13 | Texans 23, Buccaneers 20 | 2019 Week 16 · Dec 21, 2019 | 7% | 59% |
| 14 | Broncos 30, Rams 26 | 2026 Week 3 · Sep 27, 2026 | 7% | 54% |
| 15 | Panthers 10, Saints 7 | 2022 Week 18 · Jan 8, 2023 | 7% | 40% |
| 16 | Steelers 34, Jets 32 | 2025 Week 1 · Sep 7, 2025 | 7% | 59% |
| 17 | Buccaneers 20, Cardinals 17 | 2025 Week 13 · Nov 30, 2025 | 7% | 63% |
| 18 | Commanders 23, Packers 21 | 2022 Week 7 · Oct 23, 2022 | 8% | 38% |
| 19 | Bengals 31, Titans 20 | 2020 Week 8 · Nov 1, 2020 | 8% | 29% |
| 20 | Dolphins 16, Colts 12 | 2019 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2019 | 8% | 21% |
| 21 | Browns 21, Panthers 18 | 2026 Week 3 · Sep 27, 2026 | 8% | 43% |
| 22 | Broncos 34, Packers 26 | 2025 Week 15 · Dec 14, 2025 | 8% | 46% |
| 23 | Dolphins 26, Raiders 25 | 2020 Week 16 · Dec 26, 2020 | 8% | 56% |
| 24 | Seahawks 28, 49ers 21 | 2021 Week 4 · Oct 3, 2021 | 9% | 43% |
| 25 | Jets 30, Commanders 28 | 2023 Week 16 · Dec 24, 2023 | 9% | 59% |
| 26 | Falcons 40, Vikings 23 | 2020 Week 6 · Oct 18, 2020 | 9% | 40% |
| 27 | Bears 21, Vikings 19 | 2019 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2019 | 9% | 66% |
| 28 | Jets 27, Falcons 24 | 2025 Week 13 · Nov 30, 2025 | 9% | 41% |
| 29 | Eagles 20, Chiefs 17 | 2025 Week 2 · Sep 14, 2025 | 10% | 54% |
| 30 | Steelers 18, Ravens 16 | 2024 Week 11 · Nov 17, 2024 | 10% | 41% |
| 31 | Colts 20, Chiefs 17 | 2022 Week 3 · Sep 25, 2022 | 10% | 37% |
| 32 | Browns 39, Colts 38 | 2023 Week 7 · Oct 22, 2023 | 10% | 60% |
| 33 | Bears 16, Broncos 14 | 2019 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2019 | 10% | 59% |
| 34 | Panthers 44, Falcons 38 | 2024 Week 18 · Jan 5, 2025 | 11% | 29% |
| 35 | Washington 19, Lions 16 | 2019 Week 12 · Nov 24, 2019 | 11% | 38% |
| 36 | Steelers 17, Ravens 10 | 2023 Week 18 · Jan 6, 2024 | 11% | 59% |
| 37 | Panthers 23, Saints 22 | 2024 Week 9 · Nov 3, 2024 | 11% | 30% |
| 38 | Texans 22, Titans 13 | 2021 Week 11 · Nov 21, 2021 | 11% | 22% |
| 39 | Eagles 25, 49ers 20 | 2020 Week 4 · Oct 4, 2020 | 12% | 26% |
| 40 | Patriots 13, Cowboys 9 | 2019 Week 12 · Nov 24, 2019 | 12% | 66% |
| 41 | Bears 31, Cowboys 24 | 2019 Week 14 · Dec 5, 2019 | 12% | 41% |
| 42 | Colts 30, Texans 23 | 2019 Week 7 · Oct 20, 2019 | 12% | 54% |
| 43 | Cowboys 40, Giants 37 | 2025 Week 2 · Sep 14, 2025 | 12% | 63% |
| 44 | Eagles 13, Bills 12 | 2025 Week 17 · Dec 28, 2025 | 13% | 41% |
| 45 | Steelers 20, Buccaneers 18 | 2022 Week 6 · Oct 16, 2022 | 13% | 23% |
| 46 | Broncos 23, Chargers 20 | 2019 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2019 | 13% | 37% |
| 47 | Falcons 28, Buccaneers 22 | 2019 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2019 | 13% | 47% |
| 48 | Cardinals 37, Seahawks 34 | 2020 Week 7 · Oct 25, 2020 | 13% | 40% |
| 49 | Bengals 31, 49ers 17 | 2023 Week 8 · Oct 29, 2023 | 13% | 38% |
| 50 | Eagles 33, Rams 26 | 2025 Week 3 · Sep 21, 2025 | 14% | 60% |