Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025
Cardinals at Buccaneers, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers stole one. They beat the Cardinals 20–17, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 4.1 points to the Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:35 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Tez Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Final
 Arizona Cardinals | 17 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +93 Buccaneers very lucky · −93 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cardinals win 9, Buccaneers win 1.
- 1 ARI 40 TB 10
- 2 ARI 33 TB 9
- 3 ARI 33 TB 13
- 4 ARI 30 TB 13
- 5 ARI 22 TB 7
- 6 ARI 22 TB 10
- 7 ARI 22 TB 13
- 8 ARI 27 TB 21
- 9 ARI 17 TB 14
- 10 ARI 17 TB 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Buccaneers won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
56 points apart for the Buccaneers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.09 | better by 0.06 |
| Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.10 | better by 0.04 |
| Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.06 | +0.14 | worse by 0.08 |
| Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.13 | worse by 0.02 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cardinals win 93% of them, Buccaneers 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cardinals by 17+ | 52.1% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 23.4% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 16.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 5.0% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 1.7% |
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Buccaneers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 1.9.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. McLaughlin, 25 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Ryland, 52 yds made · 63% expected
- C. Ryland, 43 yds missed · 81% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 57 yds made · 63% expected
When it happened
Buccaneers’ chance of winning
As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:10 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% TB | TB: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 0:59 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +12% ARI | ARI: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 8:08 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedC. Godwin dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 285 catchable balls before this | +10% ARI | TB: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 2:35 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Tez Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 375 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 | +15% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 1:52 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Payne Durham), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1214 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 | +8% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 7:50 | C. Ryland missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him | +8% TB | ARI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:58 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +9% TB | ARI: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:55 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +10% TB | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Luke Haggard (TB T), out · 0.5 pts
- Benjamin Morrison (TB CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.brissett · 2.6 pts
- Jonah Williams (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Will Hernandez (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Max Melton (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Zay Jones (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Mack Wilson (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cardinals 26% · Buccaneers 74%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for the Buccaneers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Cardinals 93% · Buccaneers 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Cardinals · 
Buccaneers
More from Week 13 2025
- Packers at Lions GB 31–24 · replay 55% for the winner
- Chiefs at Cowboys DAL 31–28 · replay 61% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens CIN 32–14 · replay 48% for the winner
- Bears at Eagles CHI 24–15 · replay 87% for the winner
- Falcons at Jets NYJ 27–24 · replay 11% for the winner
- Texans at Colts HOU 20–16 · replay 36% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans JAX 25–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Rams at Panthers CAR 31–28 · replay 13% for the winner
- Saints at Dolphins MIA 21–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- 49ers at Browns SF 26–8 · replay 95% for the winner
- Vikings at Seahawks SEA 26–0 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bills at Steelers BUF 26–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 31–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- Broncos at Commanders DEN 27–26 · replay 49% for the winner
- Giants at Patriots NE 33–15 · replay 85% for the winner