2025 season · final
Arizona Cardinals, 2025: game by game
The Cardinals went 3–14 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.4 wins. Luck cost them 3.4: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–8.
Every game
How often the Cardinals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Saints | W 20–13 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 2 | vs Panthers | W 27–22 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 3 | @ 49ers | L 15–16 | 27% | −27 |
| Week 4 | vs Seahawks | L 20–23 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 5 | vs Titans | L 21–22 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 6 | @ Colts | L 27–31 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 7 | vs Packers | L 23–27 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 9 | @ Cowboys | W 27–17 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 10 | @ Seahawks | L 22–44 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 11 | vs 49ers | L 22–41 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 12 | vs Jaguars | L 24–27 | 67% | −67 |
| Week 13 | @ Buccaneers | L 17–20 | 93% | −93 |
| Week 14 | vs Rams | L 17–45 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 15 | @ Texans | L 20–40 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 16 | vs Falcons | L 19–26 | 55% | −55 |
| Week 17 | @ Bengals | L 14–37 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 18 | @ Rams | L 20–37 | 9% | −9 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cardinals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.22 | +11.4 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.11 | −1.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.20 | −12.2 |
| Kicks | −0.40 | −15.0 |
| Injuries | −0.47 | −19.3 |