Week 4 2025 · September 25, 2025
Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 23–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Cardinals: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): J. Myers made a 52-yard field goal, worth 26 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 23 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Seahawks about even · −8 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Cardinals win 1.
- 1 SEA 37 ARI 7
- 2 SEA 40 ARI 17
- 3 SEA 31 ARI 13
- 4 SEA 28 ARI 13
- 5 SEA 34 ARI 22
- 6 SEA 21 ARI 12
- 7 SEA 24 ARI 17
- 8 SEA 23 ARI 19
- 9 SEA 12 ARI 10
- 10 SEA 17 ARI 26
Your call
Did the Seahawks earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Cardinals
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for the Cardinals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.09 | worse by 0.03 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.08 | better by 0.15 |
| Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | +0.11 | worse by 0.19 |
| Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.09 | better by 0.02 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 92% of them, Cardinals 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 52.4% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 23.4% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 15.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 5.2% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 2.4% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Ryland, 33 yds made · 94% expected
- J. Myers, 44 yds made · 85% expected
- C. Ryland, 57 yds made · 61% expected
- J. Myers, 31 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Myers, 53 yds missed · 73% expected
- J. Myers, 52 yds made · 73% expected
Penalties: Seahawks 6 for 74 yards, Cardinals 7 for 46 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:10 | Face Mask on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 15 yards | +4% ARI +1.5 pts |
| Q1 6:21 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% SEA +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:05 | Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SEA +0.3 pts |
| Q2 14:29 | Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (PJ Mustipher), 5 yards | +3% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:58 | Taunting on the Seahawks (Kenneth Walker III), 15 yards | +2% ARI +1.2 pts |
| Q2 1:23 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Budda Baker), 16 yards | +4% SEA +2.2 pts |
| Q3 8:19 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 14 yards | +2% ARI +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:49 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards | +2% SEA +1.1 pts |
| Q4 14:22 | Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Jalen Thompson), 5 yards | +1% SEA +1.2 pts |
| Q4 11:48 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jaxon Smith-Njigba), 10 yards | +1% ARI +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:04 | False Start on the Seahawks (Eric Saubert), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARI +0.5 pts |
| Q4 6:42 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 15 yards | +1% ARI +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:28 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Cardinals (Chad Ryland), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA 0.0 pts |
Seahawks penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:07 | The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +7% ARI | SEA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 8:32 | The Cardinals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +9% SEA | ARI: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 0:54 | The Cardinals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +5% ARI | ARI: End of half |
| 4 | Q4 3:21 | J. Myers missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 49 of 66 from 45+ before | +9% ARI | SEA: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 3:01 | The Cardinals converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +12% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 2:00 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:16 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +11% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | J. Myers made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 49 of 67 from 45+ before | +26% SEA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Sean Murphy-Bunting (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Kelvin Beachum (ARI T), out · 0.7 pts
- Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- James Conner (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Will Johnson (ARI CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Christian Jones (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- L.J. Collier (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 88% · Cardinals 12%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for the Cardinals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 6.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 92% · Cardinals 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Seahawks · 
Cardinals
More from Week 4 2025
- Vikings vs Steelers PIT 24–21 · replay 86% for the winner
- Panthers at Patriots NE 42–13 · replay 74% for the winner
- Browns at Lions DET 34–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chargers at Giants NYG 21–18 · replay 18% for the winner
- Saints at Bills BUF 31–19 · replay 91% for the winner
- Eagles at Buccaneers PHI 31–25 · replay 37% for the winner
- Titans at Texans HOU 26–0 · replay 90% for the winner
- Commanders at Falcons ATL 34–27 · replay 78% for the winner
- Colts at Rams LA 27–20 · replay 87% for the winner
- Jaguars at 49ers JAX 26–21 · replay 48% for the winner
- Ravens at Chiefs KC 37–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Bears at Raiders CHI 25–24 · replay 18% for the winner
- Packers at Cowboys DAL 40–40 · replay 47% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 27–21 · replay 29% for the winner
- Bengals at Broncos DEN 28–3 · replay 82% for the winner