luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 28, 2025

Browns at Lions, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Browns 34–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:36 left): the Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 9 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Cleveland Browns 10
Detroit Lions 34

September 28, 2025 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −10

Luck index +4 Lions about even · −4 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Lions win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 22 DET 24
  2. 2 CLE 12 DET 18
  3. 3 CLE 23 DET 32
  4. 4 CLE 26 DET 37
  5. 5 CLE 33 DET 48
  6. 6 CLE 25 DET 43
  7. 7 CLE 10 DET 31
  8. 8 CLE 6 DET 31
  9. 9 CLE 17 DET 46
  10. 10 CLE 3 DET 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 4% of them, Lions 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.2%
Browns by 9–161.0%
Browns by 1–82.7%
Level after regulation0.8%
Lions by 1–87.8%
Lions by 9–1618.3%
Lions by 17+69.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.8 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 24, without the luck Lions by 14.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • J. Bates, 58 yds made · 66% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 56 yds missed · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 6 for 44 yards, Lions 6 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:10 Tripping on the Browns (Grant Delpit), 14 yards +5% DET +1.7 pts
Q1 3:46 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yards +3% DET +0.7 pts
Q1 0:00 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +1.2 pts
Q2 12:51 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.3 pts
Q2 11:21 False Start on the Lions (Brock Wright), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.6 pts
Q2 10:59 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.3 pts
Q2 2:12 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% DET +1.5 pts
Q2 0:55 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.1 pts
Q3 13:05 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Brian Branch), 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% CLE +2.6 pts
Q3 10:54 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +1% CLE +1.2 pts
Q3 2:44 False Start on the Browns (Harold Fannin), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.7 pts
Q4 4:18 Illegal Formation on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +1.0 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:57 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:41 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:20 J. Bates made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 10 of 15 from 45+ before +6% DET DET: Punt
4 Q2 6:10 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CLE CLE: Turnover
5 Q2 4:36 The Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +9% DET CLE: Punt
6 Q3 13:05 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Brian Branch), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 19 flags in 2117 snaps before, position avg 1 per 244 +6% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q3 1:34 I. Bond dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 7 catchable balls before this +8% DET CLE: Missed field goal
8 Q4 13:56 Return touchdown by the LionsSpecial teams +6% DET DET: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Levi Onwuzurike (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Martin Emerson (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cameron Mitchell (CLE CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 1% · Lions 99%

Final margin
Lions by 24
Luck in points
9.8 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 14.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 4% · Lions 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Browns · Lions

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